238
FXUS64 KSHV 151735
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1235 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Light and variable winds still prevail across the region. As
surface ridging weakens and lee troughing strengthens, surface
winds should become southerly. Even though wind speeds will only
be around 5 kts or less, this should still result in some weak
warm air advection to enhance the ongoing warming trend slightly
and help overcome any affects of the daytime cu field currently
developing. Overall, most locations are warming well on schedule.
Daytime high temperatures should into the lower to middle 90s
across the area. Peak heat index values will likely be in the
lower 100s across portions of Louisiana and Deep East Texas.

No updates appear necessary to today`s forecast.

CN

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Starry night with calm wind in most locales. Air temps are in the
upper 60s and lower 70s, some near saturation with patchy fog. So
far, the fog is in the 3-6mi range over portions of S AR and SE
OK. We can expect a bit more formation until daybreak, but dense
fog should remain very isolated.

Our 88D`s VAD wind profiler is showing light SE flow 1-4kft and
then Easterly above up to near H500, then light NW flow continues
as the upper ridge builds over the MS River today and continues
eastward. Ridge motion E has picked up a bit with a brisk short
wave now over the plains lifting warm air into the Great Lakes
states. We will be trending a little warmer in most cases in the
short term. Some afternoon heat index calculations may see some
triple digit values, but will be keeping on the low end with
101-104 and no need to mention in the zones.

We should have a great afternoon the 33rd annual Shreveport Floatilla
on Cross Lake with lots of sunshine, but light winds that will
make for lots of swimmers. All of our Four-State area lakes and
bayous will be fit for fun in the sun today, so remember the
sunscreen in the great outdoors. Overnight, more stars for the
fireworks display this evening and slightly warmer lows as our
dew points tick upwards, as the upper ridge parks over the SE
U.S. and forces the deeper Gulf moisture to focus inland for a
quick road trip up I-49. This could be enough for some late day
sea breeze activity late this weekend up across I-20 before
sunset, and then quickly diminishing. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

The GFS and NAM both get a little QPF into northern LA late on
Father`s Day with another hot afternoon needing a cooling shower.
Highs again on Sunday will range in the mid to upper 90s, but
with a bit more wind still from the SE. Any amounts will be light
and brief, but it is a start for the Easterlies pending dominance
into the Summer season, which by the way, begins on Thursday
afternoon at 3:50 p.m. CDT

Monday still looks to see the best coverage for convection and to
some extent Tuesday as well, before shifting farther westward
into the Lone Star State. The upper ridge will build to 594dam
over VA/NC for Monday, with lowering heights aloft all through the
lower MS River Valley. And even a little weak spinner at 585dam
approaching Houston for a wet Juneteenth across much of E TX,
while MS and NE LA sport much less QPF/PWAT in the models.

Little changes to get into midweek, but the 1024/25mb air mass
behind the afore mentioned short wave will end up keeping well north
and spinning up the upper ridge to 598dam on Tuesday in Wednesday
for a little heat wave in the Nation`s Capitol and New England
States for the Holiday proper. A good time for a day off for sure
with most folks up that way not ready for such.

This upper ridge will flatten and sink back across the
Appalachians and keep us running our late week pattern with the sea
breeze convection well under I-20 as our SE winds back to due E.
As we continue to watch the Gulf, the GFS has been all over the
place with a cyclone and now is content with a trip up our I-49
corridor next weekend. The NHC Tropical WX Outlook for the
ATlantic, TWOAT is indicating 50/50 chance for this system through
7 days arriving in the Gulf. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

For the 15/18z TAF update...Satellite imagery is showing some fair
weather CU across the region early this afternoon. For this
reason, I have decided to carry some FEW to SCT clouds at 5k ft
for this afternoon. Eventually we should return to SKC for all
terminals that will continue through the overnight hours. No rain
to speak of during this period and winds will remain light and
generally under 5 kts. /33/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  97  77  95  76 /   0   0  10  20
MLU  96  75  96  74 /   0   0  10  10
DEQ  93  70  95  72 /   0   0  10  10
TXK  96  74  95  75 /   0   0  10  10
ELD  94  73  95  73 /   0   0  10  10
TYR  93  73  94  74 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  95  73  95  74 /   0   0  10  10
LFK  95  72  95  74 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...33