Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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247 FXUS64 KSHV 140930 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 430 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Thin cirrus and anvil debris allowing lots of sunshine for today with another warm to hot afternoon on tap. Rising heights aloft will notch up the heat a bit over the next couple of days. Current readings across our Four-State area are some of the coolest this far west due to the light and variable or in most cases calm wind. The surface air mass still has a toe hold along our I-20 corridor, but is moving into the SE U.S. So for the next days we will see our lows warming a bit in the short term. As mentioned rising heights will bring a few more mid 90s today and some upper 90s for tomorrow and Sunday for that matter. The last of the NE winds will end today and perhaps the need for Ozone action headlines in our TX counties with better wind speeds over the weekend. However, the wind will be back right off the Gulf and our dew points will recover quickly from this latest air mass. This will bump the min RH each day and added triple digit heat index calculations will be the case. The weekend still looks to get close to 105, but keep just shy on needing any headlines. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 The warming trend will continue to ease upwards lows and highs through Sunday with heat index values trending back down with the upper high situating to our east over N AL/GA, thus bumping our heights aloft back down a bit from the peak Saturday. We are still looking forward to a return of sea breeze activity late in the weekend and especially to start the new week as the upper ridge directs deeper moisture inland into the heart of our Four-States. The best chances will be southern most locales with lesser coverage making the trip across I-20 and much less I-30. The national centers are keeping any excessive risks along the coast and eventually a general risk for severe arrives for us by the new week. As the we get into midweek the upper ridge moves northward and we will see decreased focus for the tropical moisture for a few days and less diurnal convection. The GFS ends up with a decent cyclone in the W Gulf of Mexico for days 9-10. So until then and what that could mean, we will continue with lower 70s and middle 90s for the rest of Spring and the start of Summer. /24/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Though upper level cloud debris is currently moving across the airspace this evening, VFR conditions are expected to remain in place through the period. The upper level cirrus will likely stay in place through sunrise before fading out by the afternoon with SKC just about area wide. Not entirely convinced there won`t be some minor CU development, but for now guidance remains sound on mostly SKC at all terminals. At the same time, and under the ridge influence, terminal winds should trend VRB through the period, generally at or below 5KT. RK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 95 72 97 76 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 94 70 97 74 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 93 67 95 70 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 95 70 97 74 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 94 67 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 94 71 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 93 70 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 94 71 96 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...53