928
FXUS64 KSHV 180912
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
412 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure, labeled as
Potential Tropical Cyclone One (PTC One), continues to support an
impressive northward advecting moisture channel into the Ark-La-
Tex this morning. At the same time, regional radar imagery
advertises weak reflectivity returns, increasing in coverage,
across much of southern and eastern Louisiana. While there is
little ground truth that precip is falling at this time, not
ruling out light showers through the early morning just yet.

Confidence in convective coverage continues to be focused around
the afternoon period as better daytime heating evolves. Given that
temperatures over performed yesterday under ample cloud coverage,
elected to bump MaxT`s a degree or two above the base NBM output.
Again, highs in the upper 80`s to low 90`s are expected. Obviously,
any rain cooling that occurs this morning and prior to peak
daytime heating will delay afternoon heating potential.

By Wednesday morning, guidance suggests that PTC One will be
somewhat better organized when compared to it`s current state, and
tracking off to the WNW, coming onshore in NE Mexico by the late
evening, possibly overnight Wednesday into Thursday AM. As this is
occurring, upper-ridging present over the eastern CONUS will
strengthen and expand, influencing the Ark-La-Tex as it gradually
displaces the rich tropical moisture to the west, replacing it with
a drier atmospheric column aloft. This will shift the rain focus
towards east Texas through Wednesday afternoon, with the highest
confidence in respectable measurable precip being located across
Deep East Texas.

It is worth mentioning however that the track of PTC One has
shifted south from run to run, and with it, the axis of tropical
moisture and QPF response. As a result, it is possible that the
afternoon package could see a further decrease in PoPs across the
region Wednesday afternoon. By Wednesday evening, rainfall will
be little to none as we head into the overnight.

RK

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Heights aloft will continue to increase from east to west across the
Ark-La-Tex on Thursday, as the upper-ridge expands. Guidance
advertises as 597-598 dam ridge across the Tennessee Valley by
Thursday afternoon. Under the influence of the ridge, rain chances
will be non-existent as temperatures quickly rebound back in to
the mid 90`s, possibly warmer. Temperatures will only continue to
climb through the end of the week and heading in to the weekend as
rain chances will be trapped along the Louisiana coastline.

For now, upper 90`s look to make a return to the region through the
weekend, and possibly as deep as early next week. By Saturday, the
previously mentioned easterly sfc winds will become more southerly,
reintroducing GOM moisture. Given that temperatures will approach
the upper 90`s, and the increase of area dew points via gulf
moisture advection, it is becoming increasingly likely that heat
products will be needed in the coming days. Given drier than
expected conditions over the last several days, and an extended
dry period to end the week, it is possible temperatures may be
higher than the currently advertised values. Be sure to monitor
the forecast through the week for updates.

RK

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Mid and high level ceilings are plentiful across the eastern half
of our airspace currently with IFR/MVFR ceilings developing
quickly in the vicinity of our NE TX terminals. Given the moisture
in place not to mention the pressure gradient, would expect
IFR/MVFR ceilings to develop areawide the closer we get to sunrise
and can`t rule out an LIFR ceiling or two as well. Those ceilings
should lift throughout the day, eventually becoming low VFR
ceilings. Did introduce VCTS closer to 23z for all terminals near
and south of the I-20 Corridor leaving TXK and ELD out. Did start
convection a little earlier in the day at the LFK terminal. Look
for ESE to SE winds near 10kts with higher gusts by late morning
into the afternoon hours outside of convection today.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  76  90  77 /  20  20  20   0
MLU  86  73  91  72 /  20  20  10   0
DEQ  90  70  86  71 /  20  10  10   0
TXK  91  73  89  73 /  20  10  10   0
ELD  87  70  88  70 /  20  10  10   0
TYR  92  73  86  74 /  10  20  30  10
GGG  91  73  86  74 /  20  20  20  10
LFK  88  73  86  74 /  30  30  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...13