762
FXUS64 KSHV 181917
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
217 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A tropically-influenced weather pattern will continue across the
Four State Region through the middle of the week. Southeasterly
flow associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 (PTC1) in the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico will instigate precipitation chances
south of the I-20 corridor through tomorrow evening. The diurnally
driven nature of this convection, combined with the tropical
windfield, lends itself towards afternoon/evening shower and
isolated thunderstorm development today and tomorrow. That said,
convection and cloud cover will provide meager relief with
temperature maximums/minimums continuing above normal in the lower
90s/mid-70s. /16/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

As tropical influences drift further away from the Four State
Region, above average temperatures will gradually strengthen
through the weekend. This is due to broad ridging across the
Eastern U.S. that will intensify and expand westward into the
Southern Great Plains by Friday, boosting easterly surface flow
that becomes southerly flow later this weekend. Long-range
guidance indicates higher chances of triple-digit temperatures
with probabilities above 15 percent (statistically significant,
some areas higher than 30 percent), especially north of the I-20
corridor.

Heat hazard products will be more likely as a result later this
weekend. Adequate precautions and awareness are encouraged ahead
of time against the elevated potential for heat illnesses. For
this weekend, this includes (and is not limited to) altering
outdoor plans, taking frequent breaks if you must be outside,
checking the backseat of your vehicle, and knowing the signs and
symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

VFR conditions to prevail through the afternoon with the
possibility of a stray thunderstorm mainly across
LFK/MLU/SHV/GGG/TYR from 18/22Z through 19/02Z. Additionally,
could see MVFR ceilings near daybreak across mainly LFK/TYR
terminals. Otherwise, southeast winds up to 10 knots this
afternoon to become 5 knots tonight and becoming east at 5 to 10
knots on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  91  77  95 /  10  10   0   0
MLU  72  91  72  93 /  20  10   0   0
DEQ  70  87  72  92 /  10  10   0   0
TXK  73  90  73  95 /  10  10   0   0
ELD  71  89  70  93 /  10  10   0   0
TYR  74  88  74  93 /  10  20  10   0
GGG  74  89  74  93 /  10  20  10   0
LFK  74  90  74  93 /  30  40  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...05