649
FXUS64 KSHV 141815
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
115 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Temperatures have warmed quickly under abundant sunshine and light
winds as upper-level ridging builds overhead. Daytime highs should
continue to warm well into the 90s areawide this afternoon. Other
than the increasing heat, generally benign conditions are
anticipated for the rest of today. The forecast appears on track,
and no updates are expected.

CN

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Thin cirrus and anvil debris allowing lots of sunshine for today
with another warm to hot afternoon on tap. Rising heights aloft
will notch up the heat a bit over the next couple of days.
Current readings across our Four-State area are some of the
coolest this far west due to the light and variable or in most
cases calm wind. The surface air mass still has a toe hold along
our I-20 corridor, but is moving into the SE U.S. So for the next
days we will see our lows warming a bit in the short term.

As mentioned rising heights will bring a few more mid 90s today
and some upper 90s for tomorrow and Sunday for that matter. The
last of the NE winds will end today and perhaps the need for Ozone
action headlines in our TX counties with better wind speeds over
the weekend. However, the wind will be back right off the Gulf and
our dew points will recover quickly from this latest air mass.
This will bump the min RH each day and added triple digit heat
index calculations will be the case. The weekend still looks to
get close to 105, but keep just shy on needing any headlines.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The warming trend will continue to ease upwards lows and highs
through Sunday with heat index values trending back down with the
upper high situating to our east over N AL/GA, thus bumping our
heights aloft back down a bit from the peak Saturday. We are still
looking forward to a return of sea breeze activity late in the
weekend and especially to start the new week as the upper ridge
directs deeper moisture inland into the heart of our Four-States.
The best chances will be southern most locales with lesser
coverage making the trip across I-20 and much less I-30. The
national centers are keeping any excessive risks along the coast
and eventually a general risk for severe arrives for us by the
new week. As the we get into midweek the upper ridge moves
northward and we will see decreased focus for the tropical
moisture for a few days and less diurnal convection. The GFS ends
up with a decent cyclone in the W Gulf of Mexico for days 9-10.
So until then and what that could mean, we will continue with
lower 70s and middle 90s for the rest of Spring and the start of
Summer. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period. Some
cumulus may be present in the afternoon around 5000 feet and will
dissipate after sunset. Some cumulus may move across east Texas
terminals out of the south around daybreak tomorrow morning.
Diurnally driven few-scattered cumulus is expected to develop
across most terminals near the end of the TAF period. Winds will
be light and variable, 5 kts or less, throughout the period.

BF/Kovacik

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  72  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  94  70  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  93  67  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  95  70  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  94  67  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  94  71  94  73 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  93  70  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  94  71  96  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...23