973
FXUS64 KSHV 310607
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
107 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 925 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

A healthy QLCS has developed across Louisiana south of Interstate
20 and is being sustained by an environment characterized by
surface-based CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg. 0-3 km shear vectors along
the leading edge of the QLCS have been, at times, been oriented in
a way to enhance low-level wind shear resulting in possible QLCS
tornadoes throughout the evening. This trend is likely to continue
eastward through the remainder of our Louisiana parishes. However,
decreasing instability should hopefully result in a gradual
weakening of the MCS after midnight.

Back to the west PoPs were removed through at least the first part
of tonight. However, the next convective complexes are already
ongoing to the west in Central and West Texas and Southwest
Oklahoma. These will likely begin to impact the forecast area
during the pre-dawn hours.

CN

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Active weather day this afternoon across our northwest half as
ample instability is combining with a very moist atmosphere and
upstream forcing from remnant MCV and associated outflow boundary
to produce locally heavy downpours mainly near and northwest of
the I-30 Corridor. After coordinating with WPC along with
neighboring offices to the west and north, have decided to issue a
Flood Watch with this afternoon`s package to encompass the
northern half of NE TX along the I-20 Corridor and to include
Southeast Oklahoma and the western third of SW AR as well with the
watch valid through 7 pm tomorrow evening.

The players for this event are the above mentioned disturbance
moving our way in WNW flow aloft and latest progs and CAMS are in
good agreement with another disturbance to follow this one, moving
out of the Upper Red River Valley, moving into the Middle Red
River Valley and Piney Woods of NE TX after midnight towards
sunrise Friday morning, bringing with it additional heavy
rainfall. Could easily see two to four inches of rainfall with
isolated higher amounts and depending on how much our region sees
with this first round of convection through much of the evening,
would not be surprised if the Flood Watch may have to be expanded
further east and south to encompass more of SW AR, NE TX and maybe
even NW LA. What`s not very clear with this forecast is how this
current disturbance will influence the size and intensity of the
convection associated with the second disturbance by the time it
begins moving into our region near or shortly before sunrise on
Friday and thus, this will be addressed with future forecasts.

Progs are really all over the place on the handling of the above
mentioned features but this forecast will follow the HREF which
shows a break in the storm coverage beyond Friday Morning across
the Flood Watch area with diurnal heating across our remaining
area helping to ignite scattered to numerous areas of convection
downstream of our current Flood Watch for Friday Afternoon.

Not to be forgotten is the wind and hail threats for the remainder
of the afternoon and evening as the southern half of NE TX has
become very unstable this afternoon and the broken line of
convection near the I-20 Corridor of N TX west of TYR will dive
southeast with a cold pool progressing southeast and will thus
pose at least a severe wind threat. Thus, Severe Thunderstorm
Watch #353 is valid through 9PM this evening.

Thanks for the coordination today FWD, TSA, LZK, WPC and
SPC...prelims to follow...13.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Did not make much in the way of changes to the weekend and early
portion of next week forecast. There continues to be weak
disturbances embedded in west northwest flow aloft, one that will
likely begin impacting our region late Saturday and continue into
Sunday. Beyond the weekend, what weak ridging we had to deal with
is all but exited our region to the east with additional ridging
aloft progd to build north of the Tx Hill Country into the
Intermountain West. This will only serve to further enhance
northwest flow aloft across the Southern Plains/Lower Miss Valley
and as a result, this flow could bring with it additional
thunderstorm chances through at least the middle part of next
week. Sided with the NBM for now with slight chance to low end
chance pops until disturbances in this flow can become better
defined.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, MCS working across KELD/KMLU attm with
VCTS before ending. Winds there and everywhere are 5KT. The next
MCS movg across DFW airspace is beefing up on the previous push`s
outflow, so maybe only KLFK yet to ramp up wind and heavy rain in
the coming hours. The weakening MCS will continue down I-20
affecting many terminals with showers/BR. We will amend for any
thing stronger. The NW flow aloft pattern continues as we look
toward early June. More diurnal/nocturnal TS activity to continue.
/24/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  85  73  89 /  60  70  20  50
MLU  69  84  69  88 /  70  80  30  50
DEQ  65  84  67  84 /  50  30  20  60
TXK  68  85  70  87 /  70  50  20  60
ELD  67  83  67  86 /  80  60  30  60
TYR  71  85  72  88 /  40  60  20  30
GGG  70  84  71  88 /  60  60  20  40
LFK  72  86  72  88 /  40  70  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through late tonight for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Flood Watch through late tonight for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Flood Watch through late tonight for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-
     136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...24