Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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167 FXUS64 KSJT 022343 AAA AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service San Angelo TX 643 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...Isolated to widely scattered storms possible again... Severe convection is currently moving south into the Big Country as of 2 PM this afternoon. This cluster of storms will likely lay down an outflow boundary, while moving south. Outside of that, the dryline will again tighten up to our west as shortwave energy moves into west and west central Texas. Currently, surface based CAPEs range from 3500 J/kg to as high as 5500 J/kg, and effective bulk shear values generally 35 knots to 45 knots. With these conditions, generally any storm that does develop will have a good chance of strengthening to severe levels, and be capable of producing hail over 2 inches in diameter, as well as wind gusts over 60 mph. In addition, any storms that interact with any outflow boundaries available will pose at least a small tornado threat. Outside of the storms just north of our area, expect dryline storms to develop by late afternoon or early evening. HRRR develops convection from the Caprock south into the northern Permian Basin by late afternoon which then moves east into our Big Country during the late evening hours. We could also see the small complex of storms moving into Haskell and Throckmorton counties right now continue south/southeastward into the eastern Big Country during the late afternoon and early evening. Outside of the thunderstorms, it will be another warm and muggy night, with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s, with temperatures warming several degrees tomorrow. Highs will range from the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Sunday) Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 For Monday evening, isolated thunderstorms are possible, if the cap can be eroded, across mainly the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country. A few storms may be severe with the main hazards being large hail and damaging winds. Otherwise, expect hot and mainly dry conditions for much of this week due to an upper level ridge building across the Southern Plains and a 850 MB thermal ridge of 28-30 deg C. Highs will be upper 90s to around 106 Tuesday through Thursday. Also, heat index values may reach 105 to 110 across the southern Heartland and Northwest Hill Country Tuesday and Wednesday. Heat Advisories may be needed for southern and western portions of west central Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday. Please follow heat safety precautions. Expect slightly cooler temperatures next weekend with highs in the 90s to around 100. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 641 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 As we progress into this evening, there remains a possibility for a few thunderstorms. With low confidence in extent of development and placement, not carrying thunderstorms in our TAFs at this time. However, will monitor radar trends and update TAFs as needed. Conditional thunderstorm hazards include localized gusty winds, hail, and brief reductions in visibility and ceilings from locally heavy rainfall. Gradual clearing is expected tonight, followed by low cloud development and expansion late tonight and early Monday morning. Expect MVFR ceilings with the low clouds. By late Monday morning, low cloud cover should break up. Some scattered VFR-based cumulus are possible over our eastern counties early Monday afternoon, while generally clear skies are expected farther west. Winds will be mostly from the southeast to south tonight, and mainly from the south Monday morning. Expect increased and somewhat gusty south or south-southwest winds Monday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 71 95 72 101 / 40 20 10 0 San Angelo 73 100 73 104 / 20 10 0 0 Junction 75 100 75 103 / 10 10 10 0 Brownwood 72 91 71 96 / 30 20 20 0 Sweetwater 72 98 73 101 / 30 10 0 0 Ozona 74 98 72 101 / 10 0 0 0 Brady 72 93 73 96 / 20 20 20 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...19