Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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834 FXUS64 KSJT 251816 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 116 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 438 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...A significant severe weather event is possible across the central and southern Plains states this afternoon and evening... An amplified mid level trough, currently over the western states will advance east today, with several embedded disturbances moving across the Plains states during peak heating. A dryline will extend south from far western portions of Oklahoma, into far western portions of our forecast area by this afternoon. Rich boundary layer moisture will reside east of the dryline, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Temperatures will climb well into the 90s across the Big Country and between 100 and 102 degrees farther south. This will result in a very unstable airmass across the area, with SBCAPES 3500-4000 J/kg, along with deep layer shear between 45 and 55 kts. The greatest severe weather potential today will be north of our area in Oklahoma and Kansas, where the best upper level support (short wave disturbances) is expected. Farther south across West Central Texas, convective initiation should be more isolated, with the most favored area for thunderstorms across the eastern half of the Big Country and northern Heartland, where an enhanced risk of severe storms exists. A large moderate risk of severe storms will exist across western/ central Oklahoma into Kansas where a tornado outbreak is possible. Despite limited upper level support farther south, convective inhibition will be weak by peak heating and any storms that develop should rapidly become severe. All modes of severe weather will be possible today, including very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes, some of which may be strong. With that said, latest CAM`s show only isolated supercells developing across the Big Country after 4PM, so POPs were capped at 30 percent across eastern portions of the Big Country, with 20 POPs extending south into the Concho Valley and Heartland. Any storms that do develop should be east of the area by mid evening, with dry weather expected for the rest of the overnight period. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Saturday) Issued at 116 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ....Unsettled Pattern to Return Next Week... Hot weather will continue for Memorial Day as an upper- level ridge persists over northern Mexico. Numerical guidance suggests yet another day of triple-digit heat with low overall rain chances. Starting Tuesday, the pattern looks to become unsettled again as an upper-level trough becomes established over the eastern US and puts the southern Plains into northwest flow. Models show multiple shortwave impulses aloft riding over the north edge of the weakening ridge through Friday. Warm temperatures in the low to mid 90s will be expected each afternoon with plenty of Gulf moisture in place due to southeast surface flow. A cold front should also dip into west central Texas late Monday night into Tuesday and stall through Wednesday. Thunderstorms should develop along both the front and the dryline late Tuesday with lingering convection possible Wednesday. The front should lift back northward on Thursday and provide even more chances for showers and thunderstorms through Friday. Conditions through the entire week are likely to be warm and muggy. However, local conditions may be impacted at times by cloud cover and cold pools left from earlier convection. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Expect isolated thunderstorms across much of the area mainly between 21Z and 04Z. A few storms may still linger until 07Z indicated by a few Hi Res models. Some storms may be severe. For now, will keep the VCTS at the KABI terminal for a few hours and will watch radar trends for possible amendments at the remaining terminals. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions and gusty south winds at times. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 71 97 66 97 / 20 0 0 0 San Angelo 72 99 63 102 / 10 0 0 0 Junction 75 104 66 106 / 10 0 0 10 Brownwood 71 96 64 95 / 10 0 0 0 Sweetwater 71 97 66 97 / 10 0 0 0 Ozona 72 98 65 102 / 10 0 0 0 Brady 72 96 65 97 / 10 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....SK AVIATION...21