956
FXUS64 KSJT 222329
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
629 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

....Severe Storms This Afternoon and Evening...

Early this afternoon, a cold front was making its way southward and
had become nearly stationary just north of the Concho Valley.
Thunderstorms have started to develop along this frontal boundary
and are expected to continue developing through the rest of the
afternoon.  The warm sector airmass is packing quite a punch, with
4000-5000 J/kg of CAPE.  Additional thunderstorms should also
develop along the dryline south of the front, which is mixing
eastward through early evening.  Storms should push southeastward
this evening and move into the Hill Country late this evening after
sunset.  Overnight, some lingering showers and or thunderstorms are
possible, but an otherwise mild night is expected.  By sunrise
Thursday, the frontal boundary will begin to lift northward again.
More thunderstorms are also possible as moisture makes a return and
the warm front provides decent lift, along with some upper-level
support from a passing wave.  However, most of these storms are not
expected to be severe as the area should see less instability.  As
the day continues, another upper level wave should move across
north Texas. While most of tomorrow`s storms should be across
north central Texas, some storms could still occur across the
eastern Big Country down to Brownwood. Otherwise, high
temperatures tomorrow could easily reach the mid 90s for most
locations, with the exception of areas that could see storms. The
caveat to the temperatures is that this evening`s storms may leave
behind a strong cold pool, which may hold temperatures down to
the upper 80s and low 90s. For now, it appears more likely that
highs will be toward the warmer end of guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...Potential Heat Impacts for the Holiday Weekend...

A weak cold front is expected to move south into our area on Friday.
It won`t have a big impact on temperatures, especially in the
southern half of our area, where west winds will bring in hot
downsloping air for much of the day. The front will help keep
temperatures in the Big Country and Heartland in the low to mid 90s,
while the rest of the area pushes into the upper 90s and lower 100s.
Return flow will be quick to return, with winds back from the south
by Saturday morning. On Saturday, the dry line is expected to move
east through much of our area, bringing strong southwest/west winds.
This will help increase temperatures in the southwestern half of our
forecast area into the 100 to 105 degree range. Areas to the east of
the dry line could experience heat impacts as well, due to the high
moisture leading to heat indices above 100. Temperatures on Sunday
will be very hot as well, but the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature
forecast is pointing to a lower risk for heat related illnesses on
Sunday compared to Saturday for those outside this weekend. The GFS
is showing a cold front early Monday and the European has it moving
through late Tuesday, leading to uncertainty in both the
temperatures and precipitation chances to start out next week.

As for rain chances in the long term, there are a few days where
certain areas could have a slight chance of rainfall. A little upper
level disturbance could move through the flow aloft both Friday and
Saturday afternoon/evening. Right now, rain chances are better to
our east, leaving us dry, but it will depend on the location of the
dry line and the disturbance. If the dry line stays a little further
west then we could see some rain in our eastern counties (and
potentially some strong to severe storms). The best rain chances in
the long term will be Tuesday into Wednesday as an upper level
disturbance moves through. The timing of the front will help to
determine exactly how widespread the rain will be. If the lift from
the front and the lift from the disturbance can combine they could
produce higher storm coverage.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Strong thunderstorms may affect KBBD through 2Z along a
cold/front outflow boundary moving southward. Elsewhere, while
strong or severe thunderstorms is possible this evening, but coverage
is too low to include in the terminals. MVFR stratus otherwise
returns after midnight and rises to VFR late Thursday morning. The
potential exist for an isolated thunderstorm, mainly at KBBD
Thursday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     68  90  69  92 /  20  20   0   0
San Angelo  70  98  67 100 /  20  10   0   0
Junction    72  98  72 101 /  30  20   0  10
Brownwood   69  88  69  93 /  40  30   0   0
Sweetwater  68  95  67  92 /  10  10   0   0
Ozona       70  98  67  99 /  20  10   0   0
Brady       70  90  71  95 /  40  30   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...04