Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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814 FXUS64 KSJT 290828 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 328 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Main area of severe convection pushed east of the area late yesterday evening, but new more scattered showers and storms will continue to work its way in from the northwest through sunrise. Other than the one severe storm that wont die south of Lubbock, none of the rest of the convection appears particularly strong. Based on radar trends, will bump POPs up for the 09Z-12Z and 12Z-15Z time frames this morning across the Big Country and keep an eye on continued trends. Rain chances for the remainder of the day are uncertain. Air mass will again be unstable with CAPE values above 3000 J/kg but shear aloft isn`t as strong as it has been in recent days, there is a little more cap to fight through, and surface boundaries are more diffuse. CAMs are not showing a lot of coverage, but given the air mass, will opt to go with a mention of scattered storms across most of the area. Suspect that once we get into daylight, a couple leftover outflow boundaries will end up reappearing and may provide a little more focus For tonight, will bump POPs up across the northern Big Country a little more. CAMs continue to show a weak shortwave passing across the area and helping kick off a little more convection along the Red River north into Oklahoma. Models have struggled with timing of these little waves so uncertainty that this convective cluster will actually develop, but worth a little higher thunderstorm chances than areas farther south. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through the weekend, with the higher chances generally concentrated across the Big Country. With weak ridging in place on Thursday multiple shortwaves embedded in the westerly flow will move overhead. Models hint at another round of storms developing across the Panhandle down into the Permian Basin Thursday afternoon, with this activity potentially developing into an MCS and and moving eastward into the Big Country Thursday evening/night. SPC has a slight risk for severe weather on Thursday mainly north of I-20 to account for this scenario. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary hazards especially if an MCS does develop. Could see a lull in activity on Friday before yet another shortwave trough initiates another round of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/night and possibly more scattered storms on Sunday. Upper level ridge over northern Mexico builds back in on Monday and Tuesday resulting in only a slight chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms on Monday. Temperatures will be much cooler for the rest of the week- mainly in the 80s and 90s- before warming back up near the triple digits by the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Convection has shifted east of the area early this morning, leaving mostly gusty winds and high clouds across the area. There is more convection across the South plains that is moving generally this direction but it may not make this far south before it dissipates. Will leave out for now. Likely to see scattered convection again develop this afternoon and evening, but so much uncertainty where and when that might happen that its not worth putting in the aviation forecasts at this point. Otherwise, some patchy low cloud formation likely by sunrise, with it lifting and dissipating by mid to late morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 83 67 88 67 / 50 20 40 50 San Angelo 92 71 95 69 / 30 10 30 30 Junction 94 72 96 70 / 30 20 20 30 Brownwood 82 68 86 69 / 50 20 40 50 Sweetwater 83 68 91 68 / 30 20 40 40 Ozona 92 71 93 69 / 20 10 10 20 Brady 87 70 88 69 / 30 20 30 40 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...07