548
FXUS64 KSJT 051911
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
211 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The outflow boundary from this morning`s convection over in the
Metroplex and eastern Texas has largely moved through our CWA with
winds out of the east/northeast bringing low level moisture back
into the area. With this outflow boundary making a bit more progress
south and west than earlier forecasts, the latest hi-resolution
guidance is hinting at convective development just south of our area
in and around Val Verde/Edwards counties but some of this may sneak
north into our area, generally staying south of the I-10 corridor.
With abundant heating this afternoon and low level moisture starting
to slowly work back west, CAPE values will be significant. However,
with generally weak flow through the vertical profile, effective
shear will be limited. These storms will struggle to maintain their
organization, lowering the potential magnitude of any severe
weather. As such, the overall severe threat is low but non-zero with
the edge of the Day 1 Marginal Risk for Severe Weather clipping our
far southern counties. Large hail will be possible given steep mid-
level lapse rates as well as damaging winds. As instability wanes
into the evening hours, any chances for storms will likely come to
an end by around 02-03Z.

Temperatures overnight will be mild in the upper 60s to low 70s,
with most places likely falling within a few degrees of their dew
point. This may cause some reductions in visibility due to haze/fog
tomorrow morning but confidence was still a bit too low in
occurrence to put mentions of it in the forecast. Trends will
need to be monitored tonight. With upper level ridging deepening
over West Texas tomorrow, the forecast looks to remain dry with
plenty of sunshine. Temperatures will range from the upper 90s in
our eastern counties where more abundant moisture will continue to
reside to around 105 across the Western Concho Valley where the
850 mb thermal ridge will begin to build back in.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...Hot and Dry through Saturday then Becoming Unsettled Next
Week...

A hot and dry weather pattern should continue for late this week
into the weekend. A 590 dam height ridge that got established on
Wednesday should drift eastward and become centered over west Texas
on Thursday and Friday. The 00Z NAM shows a weakness in the ridge
Thursday evening, but at this point, only shows thunderstorms over
the Panhandle  and I-27 corridor, so PoPs were left out of our
forecast area.  Otherwise, the strong upper-level high should
suppress convection as it traverses eastward, thanks to 700mb
temperatures of 13-14 degrees C.  Surface temperatures should
easily reach the upper 90s to low 100s through Saturday.

Looking ahead to Sunday through the middle of next week, global
models show that the mid-level ridge should break down as a trough
digs southward through the central US.  Models also show a surface
cold front being pushed southward into Texas.  Chances for showers
and thunderstorms will increase during this time period as the front
should provide plenty of lift for an airmass with dewpoints in the
mid to upper 60s.  Temperatures should also also drop to the upper
80s to low 90s range, given the cooler airmass and higher chances
for clouds and rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours at all sites. Winds
behind an outflow boundary have picked up out of the east/northeast
with gusts generally below 20 kts. This is expected to continue
through the afternoon hours. Isolated showers and storms will be
possible late this afternoon and evening across our southern
counties but coverage will be isolated and confidence in location is
still pretty low so have left the VCTS groupings for KJCT and KSOA
through 02Z. Winds will become light overnight, veering more to
the south/southeast by daybreak tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     69  99  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  73 103  73 103 /   0  10   0   0
Junction    73 102  71 102 /  10  10   0   0
Brownwood   69  98  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  71 101  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       71 100  74  99 /  10  10   0   0
Brady       71  97  70  98 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...50