426
FXUS64 KSJT 281849
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
149 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

The atmosphere will be unstable Thursday and isolated to
scattered thunderstorms possible in the late afternoon and
overnight. The best potential will be late evening in the Big
Country as a possible MCS moves southeast from the Texas
Panhandle. Large hail and damaging winds possible along with
localized flooding.

The moist unstable atmosphere will stay over the region into next
week. While storm coverage may be more isolated Friday, another
storm complex may develop along the dryline out west Saturday
afternoon and move east east through the region Saturday
evening/night. Sunday into Tuesday, storms looks again to be more
isolated, but certainly a few storms may develop along a dryline
in the Permian Basin then move east. Temperature-wise, highs will
be mainly in the 80s Big Country into Sunday with lower to mid 90s
to the south. Highs in the 90s are expected across the region
Monday into Tuesday with reading around 100 in the Concho Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Unsettled weather pattern will continue through much of the long
term. How much thunderstorm development we see on Wednesday is
uncertain. Models build in shortwave ridging overhead in the wake
of the Tuesday/Tuesday night convection. The dry line is forecast
to hang back to the west for most of the day. Thunderstorms may
develop ahead of the dry line across the higher terrain of the
Davis Mountains and propagate eastward into the northern Edwards
Plateau in the late afternoon/evening. Most of the CAMs however
keep most of the area dry through the day on Wednesday. Have cut
down PoPs a bit but kept them in the chance category for now.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue on Thursday and
Friday. The ridge weakens on Thursday as another shortwave trough
dives down into the southern Plains. Models hint at another round
of storms developing in the Panhandle Thursday afternoon, with
this activity potentially developing into an MCS and and moving
southeastward into the Big Country Thursday evening/night. SPC has
introduced a slight risk for severe weather on Thursday mainly
north of I-20 to account for this scenario. Large hail and
damaging winds would be the primary hazards especially if an MCS
does develop. Could see a lull in activity on Friday before yet
another shortwave trough initiates another round of thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon/night. Upper level ridge over northern Mexico
builds back in Sunday and Monday resulting in only a slight chance
of afternoon thunderstorms. Temperatures will be much cooler for
the rest of the week- mainly in the 80s and 90s- before warming
back up near the triple digits by the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Outflow boundary near KSOA, heading southwest, has left strong
east winds gusting between 30 and 40 KTS across terminals. These
will gradually weaken this afternoon, but should remain gusty
until early evening. Thunderstorms developing out west, may
affect KSJT and KSOA mainly after 00Z, and KBBD and KJCT later
after 02Z. Storms may also affect KABI late evening. MVFR stratus
otherwise returns late tonight and early Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     65  83  69  87 /  60  40  30  40
San Angelo  66  88  71  92 /  60  40  20  30
Junction    68  91  72  93 /  70  30  20  10
Brownwood   65  83  69  84 /  70  40  40  30
Sweetwater  65  83  69  88 /  50  40  20  40
Ozona       67  90  71  92 /  50  30  10  10
Brady       66  83  69  86 /  70  40  30  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for Brown-
Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Irion-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-
Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Tom
Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...04