523
FXUS64 KSJT 290745
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
245 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Main area of severe convection pushed east of the area late
yesterday evening, but new more scattered showers and storms will
continue to work its way in from the northwest through sunrise.
Other than the one severe storm that wont die south of Lubbock,
none of the rest of the convection appears particularly strong.
Based on radar trends, will bump POPs up for the 09Z-12Z and
12Z-15Z time frames this morning across the Big Country and keep
an eye on continued trends.

Rain chances for the remainder of the day are uncertain. Air mass
will again be unstable with CAPE values above 3000 J/kg but shear
aloft isn`t as strong as it has been in recent days, there is a
little more cap to fight through, and surface boundaries are more
diffuse. CAMs are not showing a lot of coverage, but given the air
mass, will opt to go with a mention of scattered storms across
most of the area. Suspect that once we get into daylight, a couple
leftover outflow boundaries will end up reappearing and may
provide a little more focus

For tonight, will bump POPs up across the northern Big Country a
little more. CAMs continue to show a weak shortwave passing
across the area and helping kick off a little more convection
along the Red River north into Oklahoma. Models have struggled
with timing of these little waves so uncertainty that this
convective cluster will actually develop, but worth a little
higher thunderstorm chances than areas farther south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

The atmosphere will be unstable Thursday and isolated to
scattered thunderstorms possible in the late afternoon and
overnight. The best potential will be late evening in the Big
Country as a possible MCS moves southeast from the Texas
Panhandle. Large hail and damaging winds possible along with
localized flooding.

The moist unstable atmosphere will stay over the region into next
week. While storm coverage may be more isolated Friday, another
storm complex may develop along the dryline out west Saturday
afternoon and move east east through the region Saturday
evening/night. Sunday into Tuesday, storms looks again to be more
isolated, but certainly a few storms may develop along a dryline
in the Permian Basin then move east. Temperature-wise, highs will
be mainly in the 80s Big Country into Sunday with lower to mid 90s
to the south. Highs in the 90s are expected across the region
Monday into Tuesday with reading around 100 in the Concho Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Convection has shifted east of the area early this morning,
leaving mostly gusty winds and high clouds across the area. There
is more convection across the South plains that is moving
generally this direction but it may not make this far south
before it dissipates. Will leave out for now. Likely to see
scattered convection again develop this afternoon and evening, but
so much uncertainty where and when that might happen that its not
worth putting in the aviation forecasts at this point. Otherwise,
some patchy low cloud formation likely by sunrise, with it
lifting and dissipating by mid to late morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     83  67  88  67 /  40  20  40  50
San Angelo  92  71  95  69 /  30  10  30  30
Junction    94  72  96  70 /  30  20  20  30
Brownwood   82  68  86  69 /  50  20  40  50
Sweetwater  83  68  91  68 /  30  20  40  40
Ozona       92  71  93  69 /  20  10  10  20
Brady       87  70  88  69 /  30  20  30  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07