384
FXUS64 KSJT 291855
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
155 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

This afternoon, a weak outflow boundary was moving southwestward
through west central Texas. Temperatures were in the mid to upper
80s with dewpoints in the 60s. Although CAPE values are around
3000 J/kg this afternoon, a stronger ridge is in place today than
yesterday which should be a tougher cap for potential convection
to fight through. As a result, instability this afternoon and
evening looks rather conditional and any showers or storms should
be fairly short lived.

Later this evening, mainly after sunset, a weak wave should approach
the Trans-Pecos area where CAPE values are around 5000 J/kg. Storms
look to develop over the Davis Mountains, where the best convergence
is located, and move northeastward toward Crockett County.  Any
storms that develop have chances for large hail and damaging
winds due to the better mid-level lapse rates in this area.

Thunderstorm chances look to ramp up again tomorrow as southerly
surface flow increases and brings higher dewpoints into west central
Texas. Models show CAPE values in the 3000-5000 J/kg range.  An
upper-level wave moving through the central Plains could result in
some scattered thunderstorms developing early tomorrow morning
across the Big Country, so PoPs were confined to this location.
Higher chances, however, exist late in the afternoon to early
evening just after peak heating for areas further south.  Storms
should fire along the dryline, which models show will be located
from the Panhandle southward through the Permian Basin. Another
upper-level impulse moving into the Panhandle should provide plenty
of support for development as they push eastward into our county
warning area in the evening. Given the location of the wave,
areas most likely to be impacted by storms will be from the Concho
Valley northward.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through the weekend,
with the higher chances generally concentrated across the Big
Country. With weak ridging in place on Thursday multiple
shortwaves embedded in the westerly flow will move overhead.
Models hint at another round of storms developing across the
Panhandle down into the Permian Basin Thursday afternoon, with
this activity potentially developing into an MCS and and moving
eastward into the Big Country Thursday evening/night. SPC has
a slight risk for severe weather on Thursday mainly north of I-20
to account for this scenario. Large hail and damaging winds would
be the primary hazards especially if an MCS does develop. Could
see a lull in activity on Friday before yet another shortwave
trough initiates another round of thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon/night and possibly more scattered storms on Sunday.
Upper level ridge over northern Mexico builds back in on Monday
and Tuesday resulting in only a slight chance of isolated showers
and thunderstorms on Monday. Temperatures will be much cooler for
the rest of the week- mainly in the 80s and 90s- before warming
back up near the triple digits by the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR conditions with winds generally 5 to 10 KT expected through
around midnight. Late tonight, MVFR ceilings are expected to
develop and should continue through mid-morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     67  85  67  81 /  20  40  50  50
San Angelo  69  92  70  90 /  20  30  30  40
Junction    72  94  72  94 /  20  20  30  40
Brownwood   69  84  68  82 /  10  20  50  60
Sweetwater  67  87  67  82 /  20  40  40  50
Ozona       70  91  70  91 /  30  20  20  20
Brady       70  87  70  85 /  20  20  50  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...SK