521
FXUS64 KSJT 281010
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
510 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

....Another Round of Severe Weather for West Central Texas
Today...

The seemingly never-ending severe weather this spring across West
Central Texas looks to continue this afternoon and evening. Trying
to pin down the where and how bad is more difficult this time
around because the convection ongoing this morning across the Red
River Valley will play a significant role, helping determine
where the surface boundaries tend up today. 00Z NAMNEST was very
aggressive with the convection this morning, eventually developing
a coherent outflow boundary that pushes all the way south into or
even through the Concho Valley and Heartland to near I-10 by
early afternoon. This would produce a little less unstable air
mass for the area and a little less widespread severe weather.
Other CAMs are not as aggressive and keep the boundary to the
north, leaving most of West Central Texas with a potent severe
weather potential. Decent amount of convection is ongoing across
the Red River so the NAMNEST scenario is possible, although first
thought is that it may be a little too aggressive with the speed
of the boundary and how far south it can make it.

For now, will aim for something in the middle with convection
developing to the west along the dryline and perhaps directly
across West Central Texas with the outflow boundary. Given the air
mass (CAPE values in excess of 3500 and perhaps much higher) and
shear, storms may quickly become severe. Initially, very large
hail possible, but an overall trend toward a strengthening MCS
looks possible with very strong winds as well. SPC has bumped the
risk category up to Enhanced across the area, and see zero reason
to disagree. Given the high theta-e air mass that may pool along
the outflow boundary as well, there is a risk of very efficient
rainfall production as well and thus, flash flooding. After a
quick coordination with WPC, have bumped the risk of excessive
rainfall up as well.

All in all, looks to be a busy afternoon and evening that people
will need to keep a very close eye on.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Unsettled weather pattern will continue through much of the long
term. How much thunderstorm development we see on Wednesday is
uncertain. Models build in shortwave ridging overhead in the wake
of the Tuesday/Tuesday night convection. The dry line is forecast
to hang back to the west for most of the day. Thunderstorms may
develop ahead of the dry line across the higher terrain of the
Davis Mountains and propagate eastward into the northern Edwards
Plateau in the late afternoon/evening. Most of the CAMs however
keep most of the area dry through the day on Wednesday. Have cut
down PoPs a bit but kept them in the chance category for now.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue on Thursday and
Friday. The ridge weakens on Thursday as another shortwave trough
dives down into the southern Plains. Models hint at another round
of storms developing in the Panhandle Thursday afternoon, with
this activity potentially developing into an MCS and and moving
southeastward into the Big Country Thursday evening/night. SPC has
introduced a slight risk for severe weather on Thursday mainly
north of I-20 to account for this scenario. Large hail and
damaging winds would be the primary hazards especially if an MCS
does develop. Could see a lull in activity on Friday before yet
another shortwave trough initiates another round of thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon/night. Upper level ridge over northern Mexico
builds back in Sunday and Monday resulting in only a slight chance
of afternoon thunderstorms. Temperatures will be much cooler for
the rest of the week- mainly in the 80s and 90s- before warming
back up near the triple digits by the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Main issue for the aviation side will continue to be the chances
for convection across the area that will impact terminals. Latest
CAMs continue to have their differences, but will lean towards a
more typical late afternoon and evening time frame for most of
the storms, which is in line with the latest HRRR. Have included
PROB30s for now and will update later once the timing becomes more
certain. Otherwise, will continue to watch observational trends
for more MVFR cigs to develop and move north across the terminals
this morning, although abundant high clouds from a large
convective complex to the south is both disrupting some of the
MVFR cloud formation as well as hiding it where it is developing.
Whatever forms should be relatively short lived and
lifting/breaking up by mid to late morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     91  65  82  67 /  50  60  40  30
San Angelo  97  67  89  68 /  40  50  30  20
Junction    97  69  93  71 /  30  50  30  20
Brownwood   89  66  81  67 /  30  70  40  30
Sweetwater  94  65  82  67 /  60  60  30  30
Ozona       94  67  90  71 /  40  40  30  20
Brady       90  67  84  68 /  30  60  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...07