Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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409 FXUS64 KSJT 282352 AAB AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service San Angelo TX 652 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL... Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Latest radar imagery shows strong to severe storms have developed along the outflow boundary/dry-line intersection in the Permian Basin, with strongest storms in the vicinity of Upton/Crane/Pecos and extreme western Crockett Counties. Storm movement will be eastward, meaning that storms should push east of the boundary towards western Concho Valley and further into Crockett County, if they can maintain their strength. The environment east of the boundary is comprised of strong instability (3000+ J/KG of SB CAPE) and strong shear (50+ kt of effective shear and 100-300 m2/s2 of effective SRH), which is favorable for super-cellular structures. However, the latest SPC Mesoanalysis does show some Convective Inhibition (CIN), so that could inhibit the maintenance of some storms. Latest WoFS guidance indicates the best potential for severe hail (potentially 2+ inches) and winds (potentially 70+ mph) will be across western and southern Crockett County as it brings the current supercell thats located west of Iraan southeast into that region. Tornado potential continues to look low, as the low level shear isnt very favorable, but it cannot be ruled out either. SJH && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 151 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 This afternoon, a very messy convective situation has unfolded. An outflow boundary, produced by this morning`s thunderstorm complex over north Texas, was moving southwestward through the Concho Valley. Meanwhile, a dryline was also located over the Permian Basin. These two features should help to initiate thunderstorms this afternoon in what is left of the warm, moist sector over the Edwards Plateau. Behind the outflow boundary, temperatures and dewpoints have started to recover, shown by some areas warming back up to the mid 80s with dewpoints in the low 60s. As storms develop over the Trans-Pecos region this afternoon, they should push eastward through the Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau this evening, thanks to an approaching upper-level wave. After sunset, an additional round of thunderstorms looks likely to develop over the South Plains around Lubbock and push eastward into the Big Country. Storms could still produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. Tomorrow, the worked-over airmass looks to hold down the temperatures to the 80 to 90 degree range. Nevertheless, dewpoints should still be in the mid 60s to around 70, with yet another weak mid-level wave expected to move through. CAPE values tomorrow should range from 2000-4000 J/kg. The best storm coverage appears to be from the Concho Valley southwestward to the Big Bend area where CAPE values are highest. Hail and some strong winds will be possible with this activity, given the decent shear values. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 The atmosphere will be unstable Thursday and isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible in the late afternoon and overnight. The best potential will be late evening in the Big Country as a possible MCS moves southeast from the Texas Panhandle. Large hail and damaging winds possible along with localized flooding. The moist unstable atmosphere will stay over the region into next week. While storm coverage may be more isolated Friday, another storm complex may develop along the dryline out west Saturday afternoon and move east east through the region Saturday evening/night. Sunday into Tuesday, storms looks again to be more isolated, but certainly a few storms may develop along a dryline in the Permian Basin then move east. Temperature-wise, highs will be mainly in the 80s Big Country into Sunday with lower to mid 90s to the south. Highs in the 90s are expected across the region Monday into Tuesday with reading around 100 in the Concho Valley. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 648 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 A cluster of thunderstorms in the southern half of Crockett and Sutton Counties will initially affect KSOA this evening, and and will likely affect KJCT this evening into early tonight. Brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings could occur locally heavy rain accompanying the convection. Farther north at KABI, carrying VCTS 02Z-05Z, for the possibility of thunderstorms moving into that area. In addition to the possibility of locally heavy rain, gusty winds are also possible especially with any clusters of storms. Expect KSJT to only be marginally affected with -TSRA. Will monitor radar trends and amend TAFs as needed this evening into tonight. Late tonight into Wednesday morning, should have low cloud development over a good portion of our area, with MVFR ceilings. Low cloud cover should break up between 10 AM and 1 PM at most of our TAF sites. Where any cloud cover persists, expect ceilings to be above 3000ft after 18Z. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms could occur on Wednesday, mainly during the afternoon. But confidence in placement is too low at this time to include at our TAF sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 65 83 69 87 / 60 40 30 40 San Angelo 66 88 71 92 / 60 40 20 30 Junction 68 91 72 93 / 70 30 20 10 Brownwood 65 83 69 84 / 70 40 40 30 Sweetwater 65 83 69 88 / 50 40 20 40 Ozona 67 90 71 92 / 50 30 10 10 Brady 66 83 69 86 / 70 40 30 30 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...19