Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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634 FXUS64 KSJT 190812 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 312 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 No significant changes from the previous forecast for today and tonight. We`re still expecting to be dry, breezy, and very hot, with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Highs should again range from the mid 90s to around 103 degrees. Winds will pick up out of the south to 15 to 20 mph, with higher gusts by mid to late morning. The warm weather will continue through tonight with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Saturday) Issued at 201 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 An awfully summer-like pattern is shaping up for the long-term duration of the forecast. With upper level ridging staying in place through Monday, the trend of hot temperatures and little cloud cover will continue with highs in the upper 90s to around 103. The next upper level trough begins to move north and east out of the Baja California region Monday night, putting our area in increasing southwest flow aloft. We`ll see an increase in high clouds Tuesday but with the 850 mb thermal ridge expanding into our area with temperatures in the 27-30 deg C range across our western counties, temperatures will likely be even warmer in the mid 90s to around 105. The dryline is expected to bisect our area on Tuesday afternoon so there is a slight chance we could see some storms develop in the more unstable air of the Heartland and Western Concho Valley, ahead of the dryline. A weak frontal boundary is expected to make its way south into the region during the day on Wednesday. The front is expected to stall out somewhere in our vicinity and create chances for showers and storms starting late Wednesday and continuing through Thursday. Current indications show this front weakening and lifting north through the day on Thursday. Areas in the Big Country and Heartland will likely see the greatest reprieve in temperatures Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the mid 80s and everywhere else remaining in the 90s. By Friday, the effects of the front will largely have worn off with temperatures right back into the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. Weak zonal to southwest flow aloft will continue into the weekend but with the dryline staying situated across our area, any chances for showers and storms look to stay off to our east. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 VFR through the next 24 hours. Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots tonight will increase to 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts out of the south by mid to late morning Sunday. Winds will decrease back to around 10 knots shortly after 00Z Sunday evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 97 72 96 74 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 103 70 100 73 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 101 69 99 72 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 92 68 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 100 72 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 99 69 97 72 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 94 68 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...20