060
FXUS64 KSJT 192321
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
621 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Short wave ridging will continue to influence the region through
tomorrow. This will keep our area dry through the period, with
well above normal temperatures continuing. Gusty south winds this
afternoon will diminish after sunset, except for some of the
higher terrain where winds will remain elevated overnight. Expect
clear skies tonight and mostly sunny skies on Monday. Lows
tonight will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s, with highs on
Monday ranging from the mid and upper 90s east, to 99-102 degrees
across western sections. South winds will become gusty again late
Monday morning into the afternoon hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Upper level troughing will begin to make its way into the area early
on Tuesday, which should provide in increase in upper level
moisture. While we may see an increase in high clouds, this will
likely do little to curb the temperatures at the surface with highs
reaching anywhere from the mid 90s to around 104 (primarily in the
Concho Valley and along the I-10 corridor). The 850 mb thermal ridge
will strengthen even further on Tuesday to near 30 deg C across our
southwestern counties with gusty winds out of the southwest,
shifting to the west behind an eastward-mixing dryline. There
remains a highly conditional threat for severe weather across our
northern and eastern counties on Tuesday, ahead of the dryline where
significant daytime heating and moisture will co-exist. Forcing
overall will be weak and a capping inversion may hinder any
development. Overall chances remain very low with PoPs staying below
the mentionable category for now but if we get just enough low-
level convergence along the dryline, a strong storm or two could
develop. As such, SPC has portions of our area in a Day 3 Marginal
Risk. A frontal boundary will begin to sag south into the area
during the day on Wednesday. Shower and storm development along
and ahead of the boundary looks to begin Wednesday afternoon with
a potential for strong to severe storms. Rain chances continue
into Thursday as this frontal boundary is expected to stall out
and begin to lift back north as a warm front. Temperatures
Wednesday and Thursday will vary from the mid 80s in the Big
Country and Heartland (where overall greater chances of rain
exist) to the mid and upper 90s as one moves south and west.

Unfortunately, the cooler temperatures for portions of the area will
be short lived as highs by Friday climb back into the 90s areawide.
A slight chance for storms exists late Friday night in the Northwest
Hill Country but overall little impact is expected from this.
Temperatures begin to climb back well above normal for the holiday
weekend with temperatures reaching back over 100 degrees to
around 103 by Sunday as upper level zonal flow returns to the
area. Some guidance is indicating a potential cold front around
Memorial Day but given how far out this is, confidence is low
overall so it may be best to start planning for the potential of a
toasty Memorial Day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Mainly VFR expected the next 24 hours, but KSOA may see brief
MVFR ceilings around sunrise. Gusty southeast to south winds will
weaken this evening, except for KABI. Gusty south winds redevelop
mid morning over all terminals Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     72  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  71 102  74 104 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    70  98  72 103 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   68  93  71  94 /   0   0   0  10
Sweetwater  72 100  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       70 100  72 100 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       69  95  72  97 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...04