167
FXUS65 KSLC 092156
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
356 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A weak cold front will bring a brief cooldown across the
northern half of the region, though temperatures will remain
above normal. Strengthening high pressure will then build in by
the middle of the week, resulting in temperatures well above
seasonal normal once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Tuesday)...Current analysis shows the
axis of strong deep ridging which has held for the last several
days has shifted east as influence of approaching trough
increases. So far, afternoon largely panning out as expected as
combination of sufficient moisture (PWAT values ~0.6" to 0.9"),
instability (MUCAPE ~500-1000 J/kg), and synoptic lift is
resulting in isolated to scattered convection. So far best
coverage has been off the Manti-La Sal area, with a general drift
to the NNE as convection matures. With several rain sensitive burn
scars downstream, will need to continue to monitor this activity
closely. Additionally, while further convective development is
expected to be more limited as you move southward, will still have
some potential for convection to drift over rain sensitive slot
canyons and dry washes from Capitol Reef on into the San Rafael
Swell. Further north near the Idaho border, increased deep layer
shear (0-6km shear ~30 kts) closer to the parent trough will add
an additional ingredient for some stronger convection. While drier
subcloud layers will promote potential for gusty
outflow/microburst potential areawide, the area nearer the Idaho
border will carry a bit of a hail threat as well. Otherwise, aside
from the convective threat, mild lingering H7 temperatures and
increased mixing with stronger southwesterly flow will continue to
help push afternoon high marks well above normal at most
locations today. Convection will begin to trend downward following
loss of daytime heating. That said, a weak cold frontal boundary
associated with the trough will push into the area overnight, so a
few lingering showers can`t be entirely ruled out.

On Monday the trough axis grazes by, ensemble guidance shows a
strip of above normal PWATs will likely linger, and HREF maintains
MUCAPE ~250-750 J/kg from roughly central Utah northward. CAM
guidance suggests this will be sufficient for some isolated
afternoon convection, but overall coverage looks to be quite a bit
less than that of Sunday. Generally, would expect best chances to
remain along the high terrain and adjacent valleys. With the
exception of the southern 1/3 of Utah or so, airmass behind the
weak frontal boundary will cool enough to pull afternoon highs
downward several degrees for Monday. Despite this cooldown,
afternoon highs ultimately will still remain a bit above
climatological normal for early to mid June.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Tuesday), Issued 410 AM MDT...
The long-term period begins
with building high pressure, resulting in warmer, drier conditions
across the area. Temperatures will likely peak on Wednesday and
Thursday, reaching 10-15 degrees above normal. Highs along the
Wasatch Front are likely to be in the mid- to upper-90s, with highs
in St. George and near Lake Powell reaching as high as 108F. There`s
even a small (15%) chance that KSLC sees its first 100F.

A closed low, briefly stalling just off the coast of SoCal, will
start to move inland late Thursday, weakening and grazing past
southern UT likely by Friday afternoon. This will moderate
temperatures across much of the area, lowering highs by around 5-10
degrees. Additionally, this low will bring a plume of modest
moisture in from the south, especially across eastern Utah,
resulting in high-based convection on Friday afternoon.

Heading into the weekend, uncertainty in the forecast increases,
though overall trends suggest the development of a trough over the
PacNW, potentially bringing a further cooling trend to our area as
early as Day 7 (Sunday).

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Showers capable of gusty, erratic outflow winds
will last through around 03Z. Winds will largely be relatively light
from the south. Clouds will diminish through the evening

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Showers and thunderstorms
capable of gusty, erratic outflow winds throughout southwest Wyoming
and northern Utah will taper off from 03-06Z. Southwest winds will
gust around 25 knots throughout southern Utah through around 03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Slightly cooler temperatures are expected across
central and northern Utah Monday behind a weak cold frontal
boundary. Model guidance suggests enough moisture and instability
linger to result in some isolated afternoon convection, though
most activity likely to remain confined to high terrain and nearby
adjacent valleys. High pressure then increases in strength
Tuesday through Thursday, resulting in drier conditions and
temperatures well above seasonal normal. Through this time, much
of Utah will see afternoon minimum relative humidity values in the
teens to single digits. Wednesday and Thursday also look to see
marginally gusty afternoon winds, generally in the 20-30 mph range
or so. Around Friday or Saturday, model guidance shows potential
for another storm system to eject through the region, bringing the
next chance for showers and thunderstorms in addition to some
cooler temperatures.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Warthen
LONG TERM...Cunningham
AVIATION...Wilson
FIRE WEATHER...Warthen

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity