983
FXUS65 KSLC 082134
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
334 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...The active pattern will continue through Sunday. A
weak cold front will bring temporary relief to the heat across
northern and central Utah Monday. Strong high pressure will build
back into the area Tuesday into Thursday, bringing very hot
temperatures once again to the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 00Z Tuesday)...Afternoon upper air and
satellite analysis indicates several shortwave troughs crossing
the area on the northwestern edge of an upper level ridge. High-
based convection continues to develop across southern Utah ahead
of one of the aforementioned shortwave troughs. Given dewpoint
depressions on the order of 50 to 60 degrees (and thus dry sub-
cloud environments) expect the main threat with any thunderstorms
will be gusty and erratic microburst winds.

The shortwave trough will continue to shift north this evening
into early Sunday morning, bringing the threat of at least
isolated showers through the overnight hours to portions of
western and northern Utah.

As this shortwave trough lifts away from the region Sunday
morning, another trough will approach from the west. This will
bring two main focuses to the convection Sunday afternoon and
evening, one across the Wasatch/Central Mountains crest and east
and one across far northern Utah. Expect the threat of strong,
gusty winds again Sunday afternoon and evening in areas impacted
by convection.

Sunday will be quite hot, with parts of the Wasatch Front
approaching the upper 90s. A weak cold front will cross the
northern and central Utah early Monday morning into Monday
afternoon, bringing net-cooling over Sunday`s highs for most
locations outside of southern Utah.

.LONG TERM (After 00Z Tuesday), Issued 401 AM MDT... High
pressure starts to re-establish itself over the region early in
the long term forecast period. This will result in mostly dry
conditions and clear skies dominating with temperatures increasing
10-15 degrees above normal by midweek. This translates to mid to
upper 90s for most valley locations with mid 100s across far
southern Utah.

These hot temperatures will be tapered by the end of next week as a
cutoff low off the coast of southern California moves onshore and
helps to lower heights across the area. However, temperatures will
remain ~5 degrees above normal. 31% of guidance has a slower
progression of this low likely delaying its impacts by a day or so.
Regardless, all members do have this low moving through some time
late in the week. Southerly flow will increase ahead of the low
which will increase afternoon surface winds. Moisture will gradually
increase as well as this low moves onshore with afternoon convection
increasing. Guidance has the center of this low moving across
northern Arizona so precipitation chances will be higher further
south.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...While chances of convection directly at the
terminal are low Saturday (less than 10%), isolated high based
convection elsewhere in the area will bring some potential to push
gusty outflow boundaries towards/through the terminal. Otherwise,
expect NW winds to switch back S ~03-05Z. A light passing shower
or two will then be possible overnight. S to SW winds favored to
persist during the day Sunday, with some gusts during the
afternoon. Sunday afternoon/evening will once again bring a threat
of isolated high based convection and associated lightning and
outflow wind threat.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Isolated high based
convection will continue into the evening, bringing a threat of
gusty outflow winds and lightning to nearby area terminals. Bulk
of convection diminishes overnight, but a few lighter showers then
possible. On Sunday, terminals will generally have a more
southerly direction component favored to winds, but high based
convection during the afternoon/evening will once again bring a
threat of gusty erratic outflow winds and lightning. That said,
VFR conditions largely expected to prevail with the potential
exception of any periods of heavier precipitation directly atop a
terminal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Locally critical conditions are expected across
southern Utah Sunday, while another round of high-based, largely
dry thunderstorms are expected across eastern and far northern
Utah. Gusty, microburst winds will be possible with any
thunderstorms. A weak cold front will bring relief from the hot
temperatures across northern and portions of central Utah Monday,
with an increase in humidities. This won`t last long however as
strong high pressure builds once again across the region, bringing
a very hot, very dry airmass Tuesday through Thursday. Expect
some locations in western and southern Utah to see single digit
minimum humidities with very poor overnight recoveries. Locally
critical conditions will again be possible across western Utah by
Thursday.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Excessive Heat Warning until midnight MDT tonight for UTZ123-124-
     131.

WY...None.
&&

$$

Kruse/Mahan/Warthen

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity