738
FXUS65 KSLC 252117
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
317 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will gradually work its way into the
area through the first half of the coming week, resulting in
warmer and drier conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)...A shortwave trough currently over
Utah will continue to translate east out of the area this evening.
An associated cold front currently extends across southwest through
east-central Utah and will weaken before reaching far southern Utah
this evening. Convection that developed today near the boundary has
brought locally moderate rain (snow above around 8-9 kft), small
hail, gusty winds, and even a funnel cloud that was reported near
Delta. Scattered convection will continue into this evening before
tapering off from west to east.

Behind the exiting trough, high pressure will gradually build into
the area over the next few days. This pattern will bring warmer and
drier conditions to the area tomorrow. Afternoon maxes will warm
around 6-12 degrees for tomorrow compared to today, though that
would still translate to slightly below climatological normals.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Monday), Issued 338 AM MDT...
A sharp warmup will be underway on Memorial Day across Utah and
SW Wyoming as a transient, albeit strengthening mid-level ridge
axis will traverse eastward across the region. When compared to
today (Saturday), expect a very noticeable nearly a 20F warmup on
Monday across northern and central Utah, with about a 10F warmup
across southern Utah. NBM probability of 90F at SLC has climbed to
38%, now centered on Wednesday. The mean first 90F day in SLC is
June 8, so we`re not too far off the mark should 90F be reached. A
well-clustered model consensus with high forecast confidence
early in the week then begins to wane as the above-mentioned
ridge axis exits to the east by Tuesday-Wednesday, with increasing
deep-layer SW flow developing on Tuesday as an area of low
pressure moves into coastal British Columbia. As this evolution
transpires, additional warming will be in store for Tuesday, with
temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s across the Wastach
Front, and the upper 90s across Lower Washington County. We can`t
rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm by Tuesday afternoon,
mainly over northern Utah and SW Wyoming.

Similar to yesterday`s forecast, uncertainty begins to emerge by
midweek, with the greatest source of uncertainty regarding the
track, strength and timing of the aforementioned low. We now see a
clearer signal for the emergence of two forecast scenarios
appearing by Wednesday and carrying us through early next weekend,
and those two scenarios are a ridge vs a trough scenario, with a
slight (about 60% of the solution space) nudge towards the trough
scenario. Should the ridge remain in place, warm, mainly dry
conditions would be the most likely outcome through the remainder
of the forecast period. The trough solution would bring a mid to
late week reduction in temperatures back closer to average (or
even below average in the stronger trough solutions) with periods
of showers across northern Utah and SW Wyoming as well as gusty
winds on the periphery of the trough. Given the uncertainty and
the nearly equally divided model solution space, it`s too early to
pick a ridge or trough solution as a most likely outcome. It is
worth mentioning that models are trending very gradually towards
the trough idea, and this is supported by the most recent runs of
deterministic, global models as well. Finally, this trend is also
reflected in the official forecast which shows gradual cooling
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC
terminal. Widespread precip has pushed east with a few lingering
showers through the early evening. Skies mostly clear overnight with
some light and variable mixed in with a mean southerly flow.
Light southerly flow persists overnight.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Dry air will move in from west
to east as storms push out of the area early this evening. This will
leave VFR conditions areawide with CIGs lifting and becoming mostly
clear overnight. Winds become light and variable overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A storm system and associated cold front will
continue moving across the area through this evening, bringing
scattered, generally wet, thunderstorms. Some of the stronger
storms are capable of producing small hail and gusty winds. In
addition, prefrontal winds will continue to be strong across far
southern Utah into the early evening hours. As things wind down
tonight, a drier airmass will spread into the area and remain in
place for much of the coming week. Temperatures will also trend
warmer tomorrow through Tuesday before a mostly dry cold front
moves into the area late Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Cheng/ADeSmet/Mahan

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