787
FXUS62 KTAE 041954
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
354 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 344 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast
through late week. A front moving through the region starting on
Thursday likely leads to greater convective coverage with
potential severe weather and heavy rain. Mostly dry conditions prevails
this weekend after frontal passage before another front looks to
drop into the region early next week. Otherwise, hot and muggy
temperatures are expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

A fairly summerlike pattern is expected to continue through tomorrow
with scattered showers and storms possible in the afternoon and
evening. Expect a seabreeze to develop in the late morning to early
afternoon before moving inland. An inverted V in the forecast
sounding and DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg will help create a gusty
wind threat with any storms that do develop Wednesday afternoon.
Forecast PW values are also forecast to remain near 1.6-1.8 inches
which could lead to heavy rainfall. However, there is slightly
better steering flow in place so hopefully the heavy rain won`t sit
over the same areas for extended periods of time. Highs are forecast
in the upper 80s to mid 90s with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

A frontal boundary dropping in from the NW ahead of attendant
Canadian-Great Lakes upper trough is poised to serve as focus for
active weather period on Thursday. The environment will be
adequately moist, unstable and somewhat sheared to supported strong
to isolated severe thunderstorms capable of strong/gusty winds,
hail, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. Additional forcing
mechanisms are likely from the seabreeze and storm outflow
boundaries. The best rain chances are along/north of the I-10
corridor. Convective trends diminish Thursday evening into Friday
morning with the loss of daytime heating and front`s passage.
Forecast high temperatures range from upper 80s to low 90s with the
cooler readings near the coast and NW of the FL Big Bend. Overnight
lows are in the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Despite frontal passage on Friday, the region is likely to still
feel some influences of upper troughing across the Eastern US while
the seabreeze helps initiate convection near the coast. The best
rain chances focus along the I-10 corridor in the FL Big Bend. Drier
northerly flow supports mostly sunny skies on Saturday with a slight
uptick in PoPs (isolated coverage) by Sunday.

Looking ahead to early next week, global models depicts a northern-
stream upper trough becoming re-established with its axis cascading
down the Eastern Seaboard. This pattern implies another front
dropping into the region, but there are notable differences on the
timing of the trough`s dip to the Gulf states - faster ECMWF vs
slower GFS. Regardless, the Bermuda High anchors itself across
Western Atlantic, so expect a northward surge in tropical moisture
via south to SW flow. Overall, unsettled weather is likely during
that time with showers/thunderstorms shifting from south (morning
hrs) to north (afternoon/evening hrs). The current forecast beyond
this weekend is low confidence.

High temperatures in the 90s will be common with upper 60s to low
70s for overnight lows through the long-term period. Friday looks to
be the hottest day when isolated upper 90s are likely with triple
digit heat indices over our FL counties. Saturday-Sunday mornings
are shaping up to be the coolest timeframe immediately in the
front`s wake as widespread inland mid/upper 60s are forecast.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Scattered showers and storms are expected across the area this
afternoon and evening. A bit of fog and/or low stratus will be
possible in the early morning hours, but confidence is too low to
include for now. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 344 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Offshore buoys were reporting SE winds 10 to 12 kts with 2-3 ft
seas and a dominant period of 4-5 seconds this afternoon.

From CWF Synopsis...Generally favorable boating conditions
prevail over the next few days outside of daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms. The best potential for maritime
convection is during the early- morning hours offshore, and closer
to the coast with the afternoon seabreeze. An approaching front
Thursday into Friday raises rain chances across the waters.
Southwest winds at 10 knots or less through late week before
becoming more westerly heading into the weekend. A light north
wind is expected after frontal passage on Saturday, followed by a
shift out of the west by Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 344 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region with
a seabreeze developing along the coast and moving inland. Mostly
southwesterly winds are expected for the next couple of days before
a weak cold front moves through the area on Friday. High dispersions
will be possible each afternoon due to decently high mixing heights
and increasing transport winds, with the best chances for high
dispersions in the wake of the front on Friday. There are no other
fire weather concerns at this point.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 344 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

There are no significant flooding concerns over the next several
days outside of locally heavy rain from strong, slow-moving,
and/or multi-cellular thunderstorms. The most vulnerable
locations would be urban, low-lying, and slow-drainage areas. A
greater heavy rain threat could materialize on Thursday with the
arrival of a front. Next week could be interesting as well, but it
is too far out to parse through any further details. Meanwhile, a
few rivers in the Suwannee basin remain in action stage, but
continue to trend downward.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   71  93  72  90 /  10  50  10  50
Panama City   74  87  75  86 /  10  30  20  40
Dothan        70  91  71  87 /  10  30  10  60
Albany        71  92  71  88 /  30  30  10  70
Valdosta      71  94  71  92 /  40  50  20  50
Cross City    69  93  70  91 /  20  50  10  20
Apalachicola  75  86  76  86 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IG3
NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...IG3