Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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804 FXUS62 KTAE 222001 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 401 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 359 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Warmer than normal temperatures are expected through the period with lows tonight dipping into the upper 60s to near 70 and highs Thursday reaching into the lower 90s. There is a very small chance, around 10 percent, of an isolated shower or storm along the sea breeze Thursday afternoon. An H5 ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico reaches into the Southeast and will keep us warmer than normal for a while. At the surface, a high off the Carolina coastline will mosey east later tonight into Thursday, opening the door for the return of southerly flow. This southerly flow will push dew points back into the 70s for much of the area Thursday afternoon, leading to heat indices in the middle 90s. Southerly flow will also increase precipitable water values (PWATs) to the 1.4" to 1.7" range Thursday afternoon, which is enough to possibly squeeze out an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Chances are around 10 percent at this time, but some of the convection allowing models (CAMs) do indicate the potential along the sea breeze initially before slowly pushing inland. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Friday night) Issued at 359 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 A stout subtropical ridge across the Gulf will make for very warm conditions to close out the work week. Large-scale subsidence should limit convection outside of possible isolated showers/thunderstorms forced by the seabreeze with better rain chances staying to our north. Forecast high temperatures are around 90 degrees away from the immediate coast while lows warm from upper 60s Thursday night to low 70s heading into Friday morning. These readings are few degrees above normal for this time of year. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 359 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Mainly hot weather defines Memorial Day Weekend as the subtropical Gulf ridge axis extends NE into the TN Valley. Widespread low 90s are forecast inland during that time with heat indices approaching or slightly exceeding 100 degrees! Overnight minimums in the low 70s will be common. However, model guidance depicts a somewhat subtle shortwave rippling across the Lower MS Valley on Saturday that may push some showers/thunderstorms south from Central AL/GA. Rain chances reflect this possibility with 15-20% PoPs mainly along/west of I-75. We could see increases in rain chances in subsequent forecasts if confidence increases. Convective potential will be on the rise by early next week in response to a northern stream longwave trough weakening our heat ridge. An attendant low-pressure system east of the Great Lakes drags a front into the region Monday or Tuesday, likely paving the way for unsettled/stormy weather. The environment should be plenty unstable and moist with adequate shear to support possible strong to severe storms. Increase cloud cover/storm activity yields slightly cooler daytime temperatures (upper 80s/low 90s). Global models appear to struggle with frontal passage near the end of the long- term period. The ECMWF depicts dry conditions mid next week while GFS has convection lingering into early Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 359 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Partly to mostly cloudy skies for the rest of this afternoon into the evening hours with a mixture of MVFR and VFR ceilings. During the early morning hours, low vsbys and low cigs may affect the ECP and DHN terminals, and is expected to lift after daybreak. IFR to LIFR conditions due to fog may be possible but confidence is low. Another afternoon of fair weather cumulus is expected for Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 359 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 An additional nocturnal surge of southeasterly winds predominantly east of the mouth of the Apalachicola river is expected tonight. These winds will predominantly remain at Small Craft Exercise Caution levels during this nocturnal surge. For marine zones west of the mouth of the Apalachicola river, winds are expected to remain much calmer at around 5-10 knots out of the southeast. As high pressure slowly pushes south, winds will become southerly to southwesterly, while also remaining around 5-10 knots through the weekend. Overall, boating conditions will remain tranquil through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 359 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Fire weather concerns remain low the next couple of days with warm to hot conditions expected into the weekend. A very isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out along the sea breeze the next couple of afternoons. Some storms may sag south from Central AL/GA on Saturday. Better rain chances are forecast to arrive later Monday into Tuesday for much of the region. Mostly good dispersion values are expected away from the immediate coast through Friday with MinRH values between 40 to 55 percent. Pockets of high afternoon dispersions are possible Thursday and Friday across the northernmost districts, then look to focus across the I-75 corridor on Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 359 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Regional rivers to include the Withlacoochee, Ochlockonee, Aucilla, Choctawhatchee, and St. Marks will continue to remain in minor flood for the next couple of days before dropping below flood stage. No significant rainfall is expected in the next week, with roughly widespread rainfall totals of 0.25 to 0.50 inches forecast. These rainfall totals will not be significant enough to produce any additional flooding concerns across the area. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 69 90 68 90 / 0 10 0 10 Panama City 71 86 72 85 / 0 0 0 10 Dothan 68 89 68 89 / 0 10 0 20 Albany 69 90 68 88 / 0 10 0 10 Valdosta 69 92 68 91 / 0 10 0 10 Cross City 68 91 68 91 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 72 84 72 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Reese SHORT TERM...IG3 LONG TERM....IG3 AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...Bunker FIRE WEATHER...Reese/IG3 HYDROLOGY...Bunker