178
FXUS62 KTAE 210506
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
106 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 926 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Light showers along I75 and adjacent Big Bend counties are on
their way to diminishing over the next hour or so. Surface ridging
will keep our winds light and from the northeast to calm
overnight. Patchy fog may develop in the aforementioned areas that
received rain this afternoon. Most probable time would be in the
predawn hours. Current temperatures are on track around 80 degrees
currently and lows tonight will fall to around 70 degrees.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

The deep layer flow becomes increasingly anticyclonic as high
pressure continues to build into the region. Late this afternoon
and evening, a slight chance of showers in the Southeast FL
Big Bend, mainly coastal Taylor and Dixie Counties. Sprinkles
are possible further northwest along the Nature and Forgotten
Coasts of the FL Big Bend. There is just enough moisture w/
PWAT around 1.5" and convergence from a sea-breeze pinned close
to the coast, where satellite shows more robust cu development.

Dry weather tonight and Saturday. With more subsidence and less
available moisture, the sea-breeze is not expected to produce
precip on Saturday. Conditions are favorable for the development
of fog overnight into Saturday morning, mainly from Southwest GA
into portions of the FL Big Bend until around 9 AM ET.

Lows tonight in the upper 60s to lower 70s and highs on Saturday
in the upper 80s to lower 90s, in general a couple degrees above
late September averages.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Ridging is expected to persist through the
entirety of the short term with a dry and calm pattern over the
region as large scale subsidence takes hold. Light east-northeast
flow will persist with highs in the low 90s each afternoon.
Dewpoints may also drop into the mid to upper 60s on Sunday bringing
pleasant weather for outdoor activities. Overnight lows will be in
the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Upper level ridging should continue to remain in
place through the beginning of the long term keeping the region dry
and sunny through midweek. Daytime highs will generally be confined
to the upper 80s to low 90s each day with overnight lows in the
upper 60s to low 70s.

Heads immediately turn to the models notably diverging with the
arrival of midweek regarding the possibility of a tropical
disturbance within the extended forecast. Two key players regarding
the uncertainty are the Central American Gyre (CAG) and the upper
level pattern following when the long range models develop the
tropical disturbance. The CAG is a large area of low pressure,
creating some difficulty within models resolving where tropical
waves may form within it / which wave may become the dominant wave.
Regarding the upper level pattern, the timing and location of upper
troughing occurring over the Gulf Coast states will serve to steer
the storm that some of these models develop. A faster trough
ejection could steer the storm further west, while a slower trough
ejection could steer the storm further east. Another factor will be
how quickly the storm forms with respect to when the trough(s) come
through, and could change the forecast entirely. All of these
contributing factors are yielding high uncertainty with the
development over the next week and significant changes to the
extended forecast are expected as a result. Currently, the NHC has a
50% chance of formation within the next seven days highlighted
extending from the northeastern Caribbean to the southern Gulf of
Mexico.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Patchy MVFR fog will be possible across the southeast Big Bend and
south Georgia this morning and may affect KVLD. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Generally light east-northeasterly winds will prevail
through the forecast period through the middle of next week with
calm seas generally around 1 to 2 feet, increasing to 3 to 4 feet by
midweek as easterlies become more established. PoPs begin to
increase once again over our waters around Tuesday to Wednesday with
some showers thunderstorms appearing possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

High pressure builds into the region with northeast winds continuing
this weekend. Dry weather is on tap during this time frame with
minimum afternoon RH values dipping into the mid-40s to mid-50s away
from the coast. Fair dispersions are in order over the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Dry conditions are expected to continue this weekend through
midweek with no hydrological concerns at the moment. Currently, the
CPC has above normal probabilities for precipitation for our area in
their extended (8-10 day) forecast likely due to anticipated
development of a tropical disturbance. As of now, it is too early to
discern any hydrological impacts regarding our area given high
uncertainty.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   89  69  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   90  72  90  72 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        91  69  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        89  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      89  67  89  69 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    91  69  91  69 /  10   0  10   0
Apalachicola  86  74  86  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Worster
LONG TERM....Worster
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Worster
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Worster