Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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316 FXUS62 KTAE 082250 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 650 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Sunday) Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 High pressure will remain in control through Sunday. Expect mostly sunny skies and dry weather. While highs will be well above normal in the middle and upper 90s, low to mid-level northwest flow will maintain a more continental air mass, with an unseasonably dry air mass away from the coast (especially north of I-10). So, apparent temps/heat index will not stray far from the actual temperatures. Some patchy fog is possible tonight in the FL counties, thanks to a bit more moisture from the inland penetration of the seabreeze. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday night through Monday night) Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 A weakening upper-level ridge with dry mid-level flow will be conducive to benign weather and notably hot temperatures on Monday. A large trough initially over the Great Lakes will dip down across the US Southeast and weaken the ridge that has been overhead for a while. At the surface, southwesterly flow will develop enabling moisture return across the region, increasing dewpoints into the mid to upper 70s across our FL counties with upper 60s to low 70s across our GA and AL counties as a weak frontal boundary gradually sags south. Additionally, this frontal boundary may interact with the seabreeze and provide just enough forcing to spark storms across the area with 40-50% PoPs across the forecast area. Maximum temperatures will reach the low 90s across SE AL, SW GA, and the FL Panhandle with upper 90s across the FL Big Bend. These temperatures coupled with higher dewpoints will yield heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s across our FL counties and southernmost SE AL and SW GA counties. Low temperatures in the overnight hours are expected to be in the 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 On Tuesday, the aforementioned frontal boundary will continue sliding south resulting in lower PoPs inland. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase closer to the coast where the frontal boundary may slow down / temporarily stall and interact with the seabreeze, particularly along the FL Big Bend. Additionally, temperatures will cool down somewhat with max temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Our heads immediately turn to the surge of tropical moisture that is expected midweek through possibly as long as the weekend. Typical summertime convection is expected to continue, though the surge of tropical moisture with the possible formation of a large cutoff low over the Gulf of Mexico may lead toward a notably wet pattern. Uncertainty still remains quite high with how this may evolve, though localized flooding remains possible with this setup. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 649 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 VFR conditions and light westerly to northwesterly winds are generally expected to prevail through the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Favorable boating conditions are expected to continue through the remainder of this weekend with wave heights around 1 to 2 feet and light winds. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase on Monday as a frontal boundary slides south and will remain elevated throughout the week with the arrival of tropical moisture. Beginning Wednesday, wave heights will see an increase with cautionary conditions possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Dry weather continues through Sunday with unseasonably low afternoon RH values in the upper 20s to lower 30s away from the Gulf Coast, and light winds. Moisture increases on Monday with the return of wetting rains. Seasonably high mixing heights combine with westerly transport winds between 10 and 15 mph for high mixing heights around the I-75 corridor of GA and Eastern FL Big Bend Sunday afternoon, and possibly Monday afternoon across portions of Southeast AL and Southwest GA. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Dry weather is expected to continue through the remainder of this weekend with no immediate hydro concerns. Beginning Monday, a wet pattern will begin as a frontal boundary slides south followed by tropical moisture arriving over the Gulf. It remains quite uncertain how much rainfall will occur with this event at this time and is highly dependent on how long the moisture will linger over the region. Currently, a few rivers along the Suwannee remain in action stage and are expected to continue lowering over the next few days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 71 97 74 96 / 0 0 0 50 Panama City 75 89 77 90 / 0 0 10 40 Dothan 68 95 73 92 / 0 0 10 50 Albany 67 96 74 93 / 0 10 10 40 Valdosta 70 96 74 95 / 0 0 0 50 Cross City 72 94 73 94 / 0 10 10 40 Apalachicola 75 89 77 89 / 0 0 10 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LF SHORT TERM...Worster LONG TERM....Worster AVIATION...Reese MARINE...Worster FIRE WEATHER...LF HYDROLOGY...Worster