Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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526 FXUS62 KTAE 071851 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 251 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Through Saturday) Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 A slow moving front will continue to move southeast across the region through tonight. Mostly clear skies are expected tomorrow, some fair weather Cu could be possible. Only noticeable change tomorrow, post-frontal passage, will be a relative drop in dew points, with areas in SE AL and SW GA dipping into mid to upper 50s dews, and inland FL areas dipping into the low 60s dews. Expect daytime highs generally in the mid to upper 90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday night through Sunday night) Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Upper ridging builds back into the area from our west with hot temperatures continuing. Some of the hottest temperatures of the year are possible this Sunday with areawide highs in the 90s. The hottest temperatures are expected in the FL Big Bend and portions of SW GA where temperatures will likely break into the upper 90s. Thankfully, prolonged west-northwest flow will have prevented any meaningful moisture return by this point keeping heat indices lower than what they could have been. Regardless, heat indices are forecast to break into the 100s across the area. With ridging aloft, rain chances will remain quite low this weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 A transition toward a wetter period throughout the long term appears likely with a broad upper level trough sliding through the area at the start of the week followed by a surge of tropical moisture. On Monday, as the upper trough slides east, an associated frontal boundary will gradually slide south setting up over the area. The limiting factor regarding storm development will be quality deep- layer moisture with PWAT`s mostly ranging from 1.3-1.6" across the majority of the area with some higher values across our northernmost AL and GA counties, thus opted to keep PoP`s in the 30s areawide. From Tuesday onward, transitioning to a southerly flow regime appears likely which will serve to advect deep moisture across the area as a tropical airmass advects north through the Gulf. Much of this is highly dependent on how progressive the upper level pattern is and if upper troughing shunts the moisture off to our east. Guidance has appeared to slow down the upper level pattern, though this is still subject to change given how far out this forecast is. Regardless, notably wet conditions appear likely as the middle of the week approaches despite some uncertainty. High temperatures will start off in the mid to upper 90s on Monday, seeing a gradual decline to the upper 80s to low 90s as the mid week approaches. Low temperatures are expected to remain in the 70s each evening. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 202 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Favorable boating conditions are expected to continue through this weekend with wave heights around 1 to 2 feet and light winds. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase on Monday as a frontal boundary slides south and will remain elevated throughout the week with the arrival of tropical moisture. Beginning Wednesday, wave heights will see an increase with cautionary conditions possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 High dispersions will impact South Georgia and North Florida this weekend. MinRH`s look to drop into the upper 20s to low 30s for inland areas away from the coast. Being post-frontal rain chances will be near 0% with the exception being a rogue shower along the sea breeze. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Dry weather is expected to continue through this weekend with no immediate hydro concerns. Beginning Monday, a wet pattern will begin as a frontal boundary slides south followed by tropical moisture arriving over the Gulf. It remains quite uncertain how much rainfall will occur with this event at this time and is highly dependent on how long the moisture will linger over the region. Currently, a few rivers along the Suwannee remain in action stage and are expected to continue lowering over the next few days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 71 96 71 97 / 10 0 0 10 Panama City 72 91 74 90 / 10 0 0 0 Dothan 66 91 68 94 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 67 93 68 96 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 70 94 69 96 / 10 0 0 0 Cross City 73 95 72 95 / 0 20 0 10 Apalachicola 75 89 75 90 / 0 0 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Oliver SHORT TERM...Worster LONG TERM....Worster AVIATION...Oliver MARINE...Worster FIRE WEATHER...Oliver HYDROLOGY...Worster