697
FXUS62 KTAE 111903
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
303 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Showers and thunderstorms this evening will be mainly confined to
south of I-10 due to the low to mid-level northwest flow pinning
the seabreeze closer to the coast. On Wednesday, the flow regime
weakens allowing greater penetration of the seabreeze, especially
from the east coast, allowing for greater coverage of convection,
most focused from the I-75 corridor of GA into the FL Big Bend;
highest PoPs in the Southeast Big Bend. The main concern with any
storms over the next couple of days will be gusty winds. Highs
in the low to mid-90s through midweek, with lows around 70. With
less northwest flow on Wednesday, the higher dew point air will
creep northward into the AL and GA counties, which have had a
comfortable air mass the past few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Warmer than normal temperatures are forecast to continue through the
short term. Overnight lows will largely remain in the lower 70s both
nights with highs reaching into the middle 90s Thursday afternoon.
There is a chance for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon along the sea breeze.

An H5 shortwave trough traverses the region during the period. This
will help temper temperatures a little from where they have been the
past couple of days. This shortwave will also allow for the
possibility of some isolated to scattered showers and storms along
the sea breeze Thursday afternoon. The best chance for rain will be
along and south of I-10 with lesser chances the farther north you
go.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Much of the period will feature well above normal temperatures. In
fact, a couple of the afternoons this weekend, especially Saturday,
could experience widespread triple digit heat. Overnight lows will
remain quite mild with middle to upper 70s expected. Rain chances
increase some along the sea breeze Sunday into early next week.

Friday will see a 591dm H5 ridge trudge across the southern third of
the country and set up shop overhead by Saturday. This will crank up
the heat again as much of the region sees temperatures flirt with
the 100 degree mark Friday afternoon and possibly exceed it Saturday
afternoon. Guidance then diverges a bit Sunday and beyond as the GFS
attempts to work more moisture into the region while the EURO keeps
things drier, and therefore hotter. Given the recent trends the past
couple of days, decided to trend a bit drier and hotter for the
early part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

VFR. Winds N to NE 5-10 kts, except for a seabreeze at ECP.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Mostly favorable marine conditions are anticipated through the work
week. Surface high pressure across the Mid-Atlantic will keep
easterly to southeasterly winds in the forecast through the week
with a slight increase this weekend due to an area of low pressure
attempting to develop in the southern Gulf of Mexico. This enhanced
pressure gradient may lead to cautionary, maybe even advisory,
conditions this weekend into early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Thunderstorm chances will increase each day through Thursday,
especially in the FL counties, with a drying trend Friday.
Outside of this activity, especially the AL and GA counties,
Minimum afternoon RH values dip into the mid-30s to mid-40s
Wednesday and Thursday, with more widespread 30s Friday.
Pockets of high dispersion are possible Thursday afternoon,
with the potential for widespread high dispersion Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible along the sea
breeze the next several afternoons. Areas underneath these storm
could experience localized flooding due to intense instantaneous
rainfall rates. However, widespread rainfall amounts will be low.

Looking into next week, ensembles have continued to dry things out
as an area of high pressure takes over across much of the southeast.
This would keep the swath of heavier rain well to the south and west
of the region. That said, we`ll continue to monitor where the deep
tropical moisture goes later this weekend into next week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  95  74  94 /  10  40  30  50
Panama City   74  93  76  93 /  10  20  20  50
Dothan        68  93  72  94 /   0  10  10  30
Albany        68  93  71  93 /   0  20  10  20
Valdosta      72  93  72  93 /  10  40  30  40
Cross City    73  92  71  93 /  30  60  50  60
Apalachicola  76  89  77  89 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Reese