607
FXUS62 KTAE 291937
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
337 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Surface high pressure continues to influence our weather today
through tomorrow. PoPs remain low, while we can expect our
temperatures to be warm in the low/mid-90s along and south of I-10,
and in the upper 80s to the north. Overnight lows will be in the mid-
upper 60s and near 70 along the immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Surface high pressure will continue to remain in place to wrap up
the remainder of the work week, which will ultimately keep PoP
chances low to near zero across the area. This is predominantly
due to a positively tilted trough digging through Virginia and
North Carolina Thursday night into Friday leading to northwest
flow aloft and dry air in place across the region. PWATs will
generally remain around 1.2 inches or less, which is too low to
get shower or thunderstorm activity along the seabreeze this time
of year unless there is some mid/upper level forcing present
across the region. Overall, high temperatures will be warm in the
upper 80s to low 90s across the region. Lows Friday morning will
be in the mid to upper 60s for interior locations, and in the low
70s for coastal locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

By Saturday, the aforementioned mid and upper level trough across
Virginia and North Carolina is expected to eject eastward towards
Bermuda. This will introduce upper level ridging back into the
eastern Conus, with a predominantly benign flow pattern aloft.
During this time, surface high pressure is also expected to settle
just east of Florida and Georgia. This will lead to easterly flow
across the region, along with an injection of higher PWATs back
into the area. PWATs will generally surge between 1.5-1.75 inches
across the area, which will lead to seasonal PoP values through
the weekend and into the early work week. The best rain chances
will continue to remain west of the Chatahoochee and Apalachicola
river basins. Overall, slight mid-level vorticity perturbations
in the mean flow will be the determining factor on locations and
QPF totals for the area. Overall, the areas  above will generally
see around 1 inch of widespread rainfall in the next 7 days;
however, locally higher totals can`t be ruled out.

Expect high temperatures to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s
through the weekend and early portion of the work week before
another increase into the mid 90s during the middle of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR conditions can be expected through the TAF period. After
light to calm winds overnight, the southern terminals will have a
wind shift in the afternoon due to the seabreeze.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Overall tranquil boating conditions are expected the next several
days to end the work week, with surface high pressure generally
remaining stationary over the region. By Friday evening into
Saturday morning, surface high pressure is expected to slide off
the east coast of Florida, which will impose easterly winds across
the marine zones. This will lead to nocturnal surges starting late
Friday night into Saturday morning, and is expected to continue
through the weekend. Winds will reach small craft exercise caution
levels during these nocturnal surges.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Dry conditions are expected to continue for the rest of the week,
with increasing rain chances occuring towards the weekend. High
mixing heights and with light transport winds can be expected
throughout the forecasting region. Dispersions will be high in
inland portions of the FL Big Bend and along the I-75 corridor in
GA. Coastal regions along the Gulf will have relatively lower
dispersions for the rest of the week. Going into the weekend, FL,
GA, and AL counties will see some high dispersions. That being said,
relative humidity values are expected to stay above critical values,
so there are no concerns for fire weather at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Recent rains from this past weekend are causing notable rises on
the Withlacoochee River. The river point at Skipper Bridge Road
should crest just below Minor flooding; however, it could be close
in the next day or two. Outside of these rises on the
Withlacoochee possibly reaching Minor flooding, there are no other
hydrological concerns at this time. Overall forecast rainfall in
the next 7 days will predominantly west of the Chatahoochee and
Apalachicola rivers, where around an inch of widespread rainfall
is expected. For areas east of these aforementioned river basins,
widespread rainfall totals are expected to be minimal.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   69  93  69  92 /   0   0   0  10
Panama City   72  91  71  91 /   0  10   0  10
Dothan        68  88  67  88 /   0  10   0  10
Albany        65  87  65  88 /   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      66  89  67  90 /   0   0   0  10
Cross City    66  94  67  93 /   0   0   0  20
Apalachicola  74  87  74  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT Thursday for FLZ108.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Montgomery
SHORT TERM...Bunker
LONG TERM....Bunker
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Bunker
FIRE WEATHER...Brennan
HYDROLOGY...Bunker