042
FXUS62 KTAE 290736
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
336 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Dry conditions and light northerly winds are expected across the
area today in the wake of a weak cold front. Temperatures are
forecast to be slightly cooler as a result of the front, with the
biggest difference expected in the low temperatures thanks to the
drier air. Highs are forecast to range from the upper 80s to mid
90s, with lows tonight in the mid 60s to near 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

The end of the week will generally be characterized by easterly to
northeasterly winds and temperatures ranging from the middle to
upper 80s across Georgia and Alabama to the lower to middle 90s in
Florida. Overnight lows will fall into the middle to upper 60s, or
near normal for this time of year. Rain and thunderstorm chances
increase slightly on Friday.

An H5 trough moving through the Great Lakes and Northeast will move
off the Eastern Seaboard on Friday. This keeps much of the region in
northwesterly flow through the period; a few perturbations moving
along the northwesterly flow could bring a round or two of showers
and thunderstorms through the Deep South Thursday into Friday.
However, any showers and storms should weaken as they run into drier
air overhead on Thursday. The atmosphere moistens up a skoosh Friday
with precipitable water values (PWATs) increasing to 1.3" to 1.5";
this opens the door for a 20 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms for much of the region on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

The beginning of June has the potential to be fairly active around
the Southeast. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, some
of which may be strong to severe, are possible each afternoon
through the period. Daytime highs are forecast to be in the upper
80s to middle 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

A shortwave ridge at H5 will be passing overhead early Saturday
morning. Several H5 shortwaves will then follow it starting Saturday
afternoon and lasting into early next week. This causes rain and
thunderstorm chances to increase each afternoon. Some of the storms
may be strong to severe with damaging winds and hail the primary
concerns. There remains a large degree of uncertainty at this lead
time as to whether any organized line of storms may impact the
region, but the potential is there both Saturday and/or Sunday. Due
to some of this uncertainty, have elected to cap storm chances at 40
percent through the weekend.

Guidance suggests general troughiness hanging out over the Southeast
early next week. This will lead to the possibility of isolated to
scattered showers and storms each afternoon next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Light and variable winds are expected through the week as high
pressure remains in control over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The
seabreeze will shift winds for our nearshore waters during the
afternoon and evening hours. Winds turn more easterly to
southeasterly this weekend and increase to near cautionary
conditions due to easterly wind surges at night. Shower and
thunderstorm chances increase this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Dry conditions are expected for the next couple of days before rain
chances begin to increase again Friday into the weekend. A
combination of high mixing heights and breezy transport winds will
likely lead to high dispersions for the next few afternoons, with
the highest dispersions expected this afternoon. Although dry,
relative humidity values should remain above critical thresholds.
Otherwise there are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Recent rains have caused a few rivers and creeks to rise, notably
the Kinchafoonee and Muckalee Creeks and the Withlacoochee River.
However, only the Withlacoochee River at Valdosta continues to rise
through Action Stage and may briefly go into Minor Flood Stage later
today or tomorrow. Elsewhere, the Suwannee River continues to run in
Action Stage along many points on the river; recent rains may lead
to the Suwannee remaining in Action Stage for longer.

Rain chances increase this weekend and may produce locally heavy
rainfall.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   93  69  93  69 /   0   0  10   0
Panama City   93  72  90  72 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        90  68  88  67 /  10   0  10  10
Albany        90  66  87  66 /   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      90  66  90  68 /   0   0  10  10
Cross City    95  66  94  69 /   0   0  10   0
Apalachicola  90  73  87  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Reese