Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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565 FXUS62 KTAE 281845 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 245 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Through Wednesday) Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Large-scale troughing shifts off to the east gradually while ridging builds over the Plains. Meanwhile, we`re still embedded in northwesterly flow aloft, though now behind a cold front, meaning drier air is overtaking the area. We`ll have to watch tomorrow as there are some weak perturbations in the northwesterly flow still to come our way, and hi-res guidance still hints at some low-end potential that the remnants of an MCS could nudge their way into our area late tomorrow afternoon. However, confidence is not high enough to include any rain chances greater than 10% at this time, especially given the dry air in place. Otherwise, lows will be "cooler" tonight, settling in the mid to upper 60s. Highs will once again be hot tomorrow in the lower to middle 90s. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 During the short term, we will be along the southern edge of a surface high, centered over the Great Lakes region, with an upper level ridge to our west, while we`re on the southern edge of an upper level trough. We will have northeasterly/easterly flow aside from the changes from the seabreeze along and south of I-10 during the afternoon hours. A passing shortwave may ride along the trough and bring a minimal chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. PoPs for Thursday are about 10% and less. Temperatures for the short term start with morning lows in the upper 60s, and afternoon highs in the low to mid-90s, and upper 80s for areas north of I-10. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Throughout the long term, multiple shortwaves will pass over the region, providing chances for showers and thunderstorms for the weekend. Some storms may have the potential to be strong or severe with damaging winds and hail being the main concerns. However, storm modes are uncertain at the moment because each system will be dependent on the behavior of the one before it. Due to this, PoPs have been capped at 40% for Saturday and Sunday, with lower PoPs on Friday and Monday. Temperatures for the long term will have highs in the upper 80s to low/mid-90s to start the weekend, and with the potential rain and cloud cover, afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s for the weekend, then warming back to the low 90s for the start of the work week. Overnight lows will hold steady in the upper 60s inland and to around 70 along the coast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 133 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 A front will continue to work its way through the region, with VFR conditions prevailing. Observations in the service area and around the various TAF sites have gusts up to 12kt or so. Expect we might see winds pick up a bit for the next few hours, but only to fall as we get close to or after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Winds will be light and variable heading into the weekend. The seabreeze will shift winds for our nearshore waters during the afternoon and evening hours. By this weekend, winds will shift to be more easterly/southeasterly with an increase to cautionary levels during the overnight hours, which is common with easterly flow. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 High dispersions are expected in areas along the I-75 corridor and the Southeast Big Bend for Wednesday afternoon. For Thursday and Friday afternoons, high dispersions will be more patchy but, generally in the western Big Bend. Mixing heights will be range from 5000 to 7000 feet across the districts each afternoon. Transport winds will be light and northerly on Wednesday and becoming northeasterly for Thursday and Friday. Transport winds along the coast will be more variable due to the afternoon seabreeze. MinRH will be in the upper 20s% on Wednesday with slow moisture return for the rest of the period reaching around 40-50% RH by Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 With the recent rainfall, area rivers may rise over the next couple of days. However, the only river that could reach flood stage will be the lower Suwannee River in the next several days. We will continue to monitor in case of the need to issue flood warnings. Otherwise, possible rainfall through the period is not expected to cause any widespread flooding, but some showers/thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rainfall. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 68 93 70 92 / 0 0 0 10 Panama City 71 91 73 90 / 0 0 0 10 Dothan 66 91 69 88 / 0 10 0 10 Albany 65 90 67 86 / 0 10 0 10 Valdosta 67 91 69 90 / 0 0 0 10 Cross City 67 93 67 94 / 0 0 0 10 Apalachicola 72 89 74 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ108-112-114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Young SHORT TERM...Montgomery LONG TERM....Montgomery AVIATION...KR MARINE...Montgomery FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery HYDROLOGY...Montgomery