731
FXUS62 KTBW 010624
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
224 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging that has been over the region is weakening as an
upper shortwave moves through the MS River Valley today then moves
over the FL Peninsula Sunday before moving into the W Atlantic
early next week.

At the surface, high pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic
states this morning will move into the W Atlantic by Sunday but
the moderately tight pressure gradient will keep the occasionally
gusty conditions in place with hot and mainly dry conditions
today. With upper ridging and subsidence today expect fairly low
rain chances limited to SW FL coastal areas with late afternoon
seabreeze pinned to the coast. Rain chances increase areawide
Sunday with additional upper energy associated with the upper
trough moving overhead.

Next week moisture is expected to increase as Bermuda high
pressure weakens and remains over the area with daytime heating
and scattered seabreeze convection daily. Increased humidity will
also bring higher heat index values to the area but this is normal
for early June in FL.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
VFR conditions expected most terminals today with occasionally
gusty easterly winds then trying to seabreeze pinned to the coast
late this afternoon. Diurnal seabreeze towering cumulus and mainly
ISOLD TSRA possible in SW FL late this afternoon into evening hrs
but with lower confidence have left mention and flight restrictions
out at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain north of the area through the weekend
with occasionally gusty easterly winds and elevated seas especially
during the evening into overnight easterly surges with exercise
caution headlines. High pressure weakens next week with winds and
seas subsiding and the afternoon seabreeze returning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will remain north of the area through the weekend
with occasionally gusty easterly winds, high dispersion values, hot
temperatures and marginally low afternoon RH values. Isolated to
scattered afternoon into evening showers and thunderstorm will be
possible daily as well. Winds lighten early next week with the
afternoon seabreeze returning as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  74  92  75 /  20  20  40  20
FMY  94  73  94  73 /  30  20  70  40
GIF  91  70  92  71 /  10  10  40  20
SRQ  94  73  95  73 /  20  20  40  30
BKV  92  65  94  67 /  10  10  30  20
SPG  91  77  92  77 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

RJD