Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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679 FXUS62 KTBW 311417 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1017 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1012 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Another sunny and hot day is underway across the area. Today looks similiar to yesterday with the highest moisture and best chance of rain being in Southwest Florida with some isolated shower possible everywhere else. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)... Issued at 430 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Just another morning in paradise with temperatures near 70 degrees area-wide. Meanwhile, a stationary frontal boundary associated a system pushing off the coast northeastern coast should finally exit the area later today. Before it does, it could support periods of showers and storms thins afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland. Unfortunately, most of the area will likely stay dry as moisture will be limited and mostly available along/south of the I-4 corridor. Afternoon temperatures today should be similar to yesterday in the mid to upper 90s, but areas that receive rain will get some relief from the heat. Though conditions should be dry enough to keep any advisories from being needed, residents/visitors should stay hydrated and take breaks if outdoors. In addition, east to southeasterly winds prevail and become breezy during the evening. As this system exits the area, the high pressure begins to build along the East Coast keeping very hot and dry conditions in place through the weekend. && .LONG TERM (SUN-THU)... Issued at 430 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Going into early next week, the aforementioned ridge stays in place before an upper level disturbance weakens it by mid-week. This allows winds to shift from the south and moisture to return to the area. Also, this could increase rain chances and potentially bring afternoon highs down a few degrees. This is our hope anyways.. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1012 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 VFR conditions expected through the period with winds generally staying below 10 knots. Thunderstorms will be possible in the late afternoon and evening hours at our southern terminals. The rest of our sites also have a chance to see a storm but right now chances are on the lower end so kept it out of the TAFs. && .MARINE... Issued at 404 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 High pressure building along the Eastern Seaboard will tighten pressure gradient bringing breezy easterly winds between 15 to 20 knots through the weekend. Small craft should exercise caution during this time. Boating conditions should improve early next week as high pressure weakens and a disturbance approaches the Gulf waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 355 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 High pressure building over the area should keep hot temperatures and mostly dry conditions in place through the period. Minimum humidities are expected to be near or at critical values through the weekend and into early next week. East to southeasterly winds prevail with the occasional gusts between 15 to 20 mph this afternoon and Saturday. The sea breeze and potential for showers and storms this afternoon should keep the humidities from lining up with the breezy times, so only elevated conditions are anticipated at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 94 73 94 73 / 30 20 20 10 FMY 94 71 94 73 / 40 20 40 20 GIF 95 70 91 69 / 20 10 10 0 SRQ 95 71 97 72 / 30 30 20 20 BKV 95 66 95 65 / 20 10 10 10 SPG 94 76 94 77 / 30 30 20 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 3 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...ADavis UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ADavis