Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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599 FXUS62 KTBW 192349 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 749 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 739 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 VFR conditions prevail through the period across terminals. South to southwesterly winds are expected to become gusty and shift from the northwest into the afternoon on Monday. Lingering front over southern portions of the state could bring isolated storms in the afternoon mainly to FMY/RSW, but the rest of the TAF site should remain dry. && .DISCUSSION... Low level inversion earlier today really hindered convective activity ahead of the frontal boundary for most of the area. But diurnal heating S of the front is finally breaking the cap allowing storms to tap into 3000+ CAPE airmass for possible strong afternoon thunderstorms over Highlands Co and may still see some isolated thunderstorms into SW FL until the front finally moves through later this afternoon/evening. Elsewhere, dangerous rip currents continue along areas beaches through sunset. The upper shortwave from the Carolinas into N FL is progged to briefly stall in the W Atlantic with troughing extending back over the area for Monday and Tuesday. The frontal boundary should be over S FL with weak high pressure building into N FL while residual modest support and moister to produce diurnal seabreeze showers or storms mainly in the interior areas Monday and Tuesday during the late afternoon and evening hours. Upper ridging to build over the region from the SW Gulf around mid week with surface ridging building along the E Seaboard as shortwaves move E well N of the area late week and over the weekend, eroding the ridge while the surface ridge weakens slightly and shifts a bit E into the Atlantic. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 76 88 72 90 / 10 10 10 20 FMY 76 91 72 92 / 30 30 10 30 GIF 72 90 70 90 / 20 30 10 40 SRQ 75 89 71 91 / 20 10 10 20 BKV 68 89 65 91 / 10 20 0 30 SPG 78 88 76 90 / 10 10 10 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Delerme/RDavis DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ADavis