275
FXUS62 KTBW 102359
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
759 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
The complex and wet pattern is beginning to set up this evening as
the features are coming in phase. The upper longwave trough down
the Eastern Seaboard continues to dig through the Deep South and
into the N Gulf pushing a surface frontal boundary and active
weather into N FL shunting the Bermuda high well S into the
S Bahamas. These features are interacting with a weak tropical
wave depicted on surface plots from the Yucatan Peninsula bending
back into the SE Gulf of Mexico. Deep convection formed in
several areas on the eastern side of the wave earlier today and
continue this evening. An early look at the TBW 00Z sounding and
FL ACARS data are showing the dry air aloft is quickly eroding in
C and SW FL as the southerly flow low level flow deepens bring the
tropical airmass from the NW Carib by tomorrow morning. Models
trends have increased PoPs earlier tonight but not QPF values and
have updated the grids and forecasts. The ongoing forecast looks
on track for Tuesday and beyond and will continue to closely
monitor the latest data and update products as needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Complex set up with SCT SHRA this evening and VCSH ongoing in
most areas to become widespread RA overnight with VCTS into
Tuesday morning with widespread MVFR cigs/vsbys and locally IFR in
heavier heavier showers/storms through Tuesday. Winds generally
S-SW 5-10 kts, but may get a brief and localized higher gust in
strong showers/storms as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Scattered showers and storms across the area today pushing off to
the ENE with the SW flow in place. A plume of deep tropical
moisture will be lifting up over the area overnight and Tuesday
and align along a stalled frontal boundary in place across south
Florida and a weak upper trough. This then remains in place across
the peninsula, through the end of the week, bringing periods of
rain across the area through the week, with some occasional
embedded thunderstorms. A slight risk of excessive rainfall is in
place across the southern half of the area with this several day
period of heavy rainfall. The trough axis shifts west for the
weekend, but enough moisture will remain to allow for scattered to
numerous storms still. Temperatures will be more in the upper 80s
for highs and in the 70s for lows with all of the cloudiness and
rain through the rest of the week. No Flood Watch at this time, as
though high rain totals are expected through the week, the severe
drought in place will allow for some initial good absorption and
can reassess next period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

SW flow in place today will shift to more southerly overnight,
with tropical moisture lifting over the area and remaining
through the rest of the week along a stalled boundary in place
across south Florida. This will allow for periods of rain with an
isolated occasional thunderstorm for Tuesday through the rest of
the period across the waters, with the greatest coverage across
the southern waters. No headlines are expected, but winds and seas
will be locally higher near the storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Deep moisture moving into the area will bring periods of rain
across the area for Tuesday through the end of the week, with
higher rain chances continuing into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  86  77  86 /  60  80  70  80
FMY  77  84  76  84 /  60  90  90  90
GIF  76  85  74  86 /  50  80  70  90
SRQ  78  87  77  87 /  60  90  80  90
BKV  74  88  73  89 /  50  80  60  80
SPG  79  85  78  87 /  60  80  80  80

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Davis