Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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275 FXUS62 KTBW 102359 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 759 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... The complex and wet pattern is beginning to set up this evening as the features are coming in phase. The upper longwave trough down the Eastern Seaboard continues to dig through the Deep South and into the N Gulf pushing a surface frontal boundary and active weather into N FL shunting the Bermuda high well S into the S Bahamas. These features are interacting with a weak tropical wave depicted on surface plots from the Yucatan Peninsula bending back into the SE Gulf of Mexico. Deep convection formed in several areas on the eastern side of the wave earlier today and continue this evening. An early look at the TBW 00Z sounding and FL ACARS data are showing the dry air aloft is quickly eroding in C and SW FL as the southerly flow low level flow deepens bring the tropical airmass from the NW Carib by tomorrow morning. Models trends have increased PoPs earlier tonight but not QPF values and have updated the grids and forecasts. The ongoing forecast looks on track for Tuesday and beyond and will continue to closely monitor the latest data and update products as needed. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Complex set up with SCT SHRA this evening and VCSH ongoing in most areas to become widespread RA overnight with VCTS into Tuesday morning with widespread MVFR cigs/vsbys and locally IFR in heavier heavier showers/storms through Tuesday. Winds generally S-SW 5-10 kts, but may get a brief and localized higher gust in strong showers/storms as well. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 311 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Scattered showers and storms across the area today pushing off to the ENE with the SW flow in place. A plume of deep tropical moisture will be lifting up over the area overnight and Tuesday and align along a stalled frontal boundary in place across south Florida and a weak upper trough. This then remains in place across the peninsula, through the end of the week, bringing periods of rain across the area through the week, with some occasional embedded thunderstorms. A slight risk of excessive rainfall is in place across the southern half of the area with this several day period of heavy rainfall. The trough axis shifts west for the weekend, but enough moisture will remain to allow for scattered to numerous storms still. Temperatures will be more in the upper 80s for highs and in the 70s for lows with all of the cloudiness and rain through the rest of the week. No Flood Watch at this time, as though high rain totals are expected through the week, the severe drought in place will allow for some initial good absorption and can reassess next period. && .MARINE... Issued at 311 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 SW flow in place today will shift to more southerly overnight, with tropical moisture lifting over the area and remaining through the rest of the week along a stalled boundary in place across south Florida. This will allow for periods of rain with an isolated occasional thunderstorm for Tuesday through the rest of the period across the waters, with the greatest coverage across the southern waters. No headlines are expected, but winds and seas will be locally higher near the storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 311 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Deep moisture moving into the area will bring periods of rain across the area for Tuesday through the end of the week, with higher rain chances continuing into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 79 86 77 86 / 60 80 70 80 FMY 77 84 76 84 / 60 90 90 90 GIF 76 85 74 86 / 50 80 70 90 SRQ 78 87 77 87 / 60 90 80 90 BKV 74 88 73 89 / 50 80 60 80 SPG 79 85 78 87 / 60 80 80 80 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Davis