547
FXUS62 KTBW 100724
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
324 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Tranquil weather across the forecast area early this morning.
Temperatures and dewpoints are generally in the 70s. Current water
vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates a weak
shortwave trough to the north over the Southeastern U.S. Mid-level
ridging continues to hold on for a bit longer across the Florida
peninsula. This ridge will continue to breakdown over the next 24
hours. Expect this ridge and dry air aloft will keep
precipitation coverage limited later this afternoon. For now, it
appears best chances for showers and storms will be across
southeastern portions of the area. Today will be another hot day
with the dry conditions in place. Highs will climb into the low to
mid 90s with heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s.

Much better chances for showers and storms will begin on Tuesday
and will extend throughout much of the remainder of the forecast
period. The mid-level ridge will breakdown and a 300 mb
subtropical jet streak will move across the Gulf of Mexico. The
forecast area will be in the favored left exit region for
divergence aloft. Moisture will also be increasing with PW values
climbing to the 2.0-2.25 inch range on Tuesday. These PW values
are over the 90th percentile for mid June climatological. Due to
this, expect numerous to widespread showers/storms on Tuesday with
PoPs around 70-90%. With the saturated atmosphere, lapse rates
will be near moist adiabatic and do not expect any severe storms,
although a stronger storm or two cannot be ruled out.

The story throughout the remainder of the week will be the
tropical moisture and increased chances for showers/storms each
day. The wet season looks to take hold across the region during
the upcoming week. Forecast rainfall amounts over the next 7 days
vary a great deal from north to south. Lower amounts of 2-8 inches
are forecast to the north of I-4 with amounts as high as 10-15
inches across southwest Florida. For now, expect most of this
rainfall will be beneficial with drought in place. Most streams
are running below the 25th percentile for mid-June. If flooding
issues do arise, expect it would be later in the week or in urban
areas with poor drainage. We will continue to monitor the heavy
rainfall potential throughout the upcoming days.

High temperatures will be on the cooler side in this wet pattern.
Highs Tuesday and beyond will generally be in the mid 80s to near
90. This wetter patterns looks to remain in place throughout the
end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR conditions currently across the terminals. Winds are generally
light and variable overnight but will become westerly to
southwesterly later this morning. A few showers/storms may form
across the southern terminals later this afternoon and evening but
confidence is too low to mention VCTS or TS in the terminals at
this time. Went with VCSH for now at PGD, FMY, and RSW after 16z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  79  88  79 /  40  70  90  70
FMY  93  78  86  78 /  70  70  90  90
GIF  96  76  88  75 /  60  60  90  70
SRQ  93  77  88  77 /  50  70  90  80
BKV  94  72  91  72 /  30  60  80  60
SPG  92  81  88  81 /  50  70  90  80

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Anderson
DECISION SUPPORT...Shiveley
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Shiveley