684
FXUS62 KTBW 090044
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
844 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

There are just a few showers across the interior this evening as dry
air continues to win out. With the sun now setting, energy is waning
across the entire FL peninsula. It should be a pretty quiet night.

While 0Z sounding data shows a PW value of around 1.4 inches,
satellite-derived PW values show values of 1.7 to 1.9 across SWFL.
This would suggest an additional round of coastal showers is
possible tomorrow morning across this same region. This is where the
forecast continues to highlight the greatest rain chances across our
region. The forecast has been updated to reflect the latest trends,
which did mean pulling back the POP forecast for the Tampa Bay Area.

Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. Outside of SWFL, it looks
to be another warm, humid day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 842 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Main impact for the TAF period continues to be showers and
thunderstorms. Latest trends suggest early showers again across
SWFL, much like today. These could transition to thunderstorms later
tomorrow afternoon, if this early convection does not
significantly impact later convective development. A drier
airmass remains, however, across the Tampa Bay region and the
interior. While a brief shower cannot be completely ruled out,
this should keep nearly all the activity to the east, with no
mention at coastal west Florida sites. As more moisture lifts
north early next week, increasing impacts from thunderstorms are
expected at all terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  93  80  92 /   0  10  10  40
FMY  79  93  79  92 /  20  40  30  80
GIF  77  97  77  95 /  10  20   0  50
SRQ  79  92  79  91 /  10  20  20  60
BKV  72  95  72  94 /   0  10   0  30
SPG  82  92  83  91 /   0  10  10  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Flannery