Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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620 FXUS62 KTBW 090743 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 343 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 339 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Today we will see a split across the state. North of I-4 we will see drier air with PWs less then 1.5. South of I-4 PW will be higher especially in SW Florida where PWs could be around 2. This will cause dry and sunny conditions north of I-4 with showers and storms possible South of I-4 with highest PoPs in SW Florida this afternoon and evening. Heat will also be a concern this afternoon thanks to the slightly drier conditions most of us will experience. Expect highs in the mid 90`s with heat index in the interior to reach around 105. Tropical moisture from the Caribbean will start to move north and come over the state for next week. Monday and Tuesday will act as transition days. We will see higher PoPs compared to what we have seen the last few weeks but not expecting a washout or widespread showers. The more widespread rain will start on Wednesday and last at least through next Saturday. PW will be over 2 inches throughout this time period with cloudy skies. However, since this moisture will be tropical in nature we will only be expecting isolated thunderstorms as much of the this event will just be rain. This will be good news for our drought conditions and hopefully we see some improvements of that by this time next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 339 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 VFR conditions outside of thunderstorms and westerly winds will persist through the period. Storm chances will mainly be confined to SW Florida and the interior portions of the state. && .MARINE... Issued at 339 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Winds will primarily be out of the west through the weekend and into Monday and generally stay at or below 10 knots. A few showers and storms will be possible overnight and into the early morning hours before storms shift inland through the daytime hours. Tropical moisture will start to spread across the area Tuesday through Thursday across the area bringing better chances of overnight and early morning showers and storms and winds primarily out of the south. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 339 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 We will see drier air filter into the northern half of Florida. This will keep RHs this afternoon around 40 percent north of I-4. As we go into early next week we will see tropical moisture from the Caribbean spread across the state bring with it widespread showers and high humidity. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 93 79 92 79 / 30 20 60 60 FMY 94 78 91 78 / 80 40 80 70 GIF 98 77 95 77 / 50 10 70 50 SRQ 92 79 92 78 / 40 30 70 70 BKV 96 71 95 72 / 20 0 40 50 SPG 92 81 91 82 / 30 20 60 70 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Oglesby UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby