974
FXUS62 KTBW 080745
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
345 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Another weak trough is currently stretched from Tampa Bay up through
Jacksonville. This trough will continue to make it way through
Florida today. Behind the trough there will be some drier air
however we will still see an uptick in moisture ahead of it. This
will result in shower and storms chances mainly south of I4 with the
best chances in Southwest Florida this afternoon and evening.
Ridging will remain in South Florida on Sunday with a West to
Southwest Flow. This will keep shower chances once again in the
interior and Southwest Florida. Heat will be a concern for our
weekend with highs in the low to mid 90`s and heat index in the low
100`s for most of us.

As we go into next week tropical moisture from the Caribbean will
start to head north over the state. Shower and thunderstorm chances
will increase day to day. Our highest rain shower chances will be
Wednesday through Friday where models are showing PW from 2 to 2.5
inches across the state. Models are still all over the place when it
comes to actually totals we might see throughout the event. Euro in
on the lower end showering widespread 2 to 4 inches while GFS is
showing a range of 6 to 10 inches. Currently we will keep the
official forecast between 4 to 8 inches but will probably change as
we get closer to the event.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 343 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions expected throughout the period outside of
thunderstorms with westerly flow. Best chance to see storms today
will be inland and in southwest Florida. This will include LAL,
PGD, FMY, and RSW where VCTS is in the TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 343 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Winds will primarily be out of the west through the
weekend and into Monday and generally stay at or below 10
knots. A few showers and storms will be possible overnight and into
the early morning hours before storms shift inland through the
daytime hours. Tropical moisture will start to spread across the
area Tuesday and Wednesday across the area bringing better chances
of overnight and early morning showers and storms and shifting winds
southwest and then southerly.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 343 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A slightly drier airmass will be over the area mainly north
of I-4 this weekend resulting in RHs to the north getting to around
40 percent. Tropical moisture will spread across the state next week
bringing widespread showers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  79  93  80 /  30  20  30  20
FMY  94  77  93  79 /  60  30  70  50
GIF  97  77  98  77 /  50  20  40  10
SRQ  92  78  93  80 /  40  20  40  30
BKV  95  72  96  73 /  30  10  20  10
SPG  91  81  93  83 /  30  20  40  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Oglesby
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby