Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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109 FXUS62 KTBW 080036 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 836 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Westerly flow has become well established today and expect this pattern to continue through the weekend, but unlike a typical westerly sea breeze regime, an upper ridge will build over the Gulf to produce subsidence and drier air aloft limiting morning/early afternoon coastal rain and only scattered PoPs inland and into SW FL. This drier air aloft and suppressed cloud cover will allow temps to warm quickly Saturday as higher dewpoint Gulf airmass will produce higher humidity and above normal heat index values through the weekend. Latest grids and forecasts on track. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) VFR conditions continue with weakening westerly winds tonight then increasing flow Sat but expect some drier air over much of the area to limit SCT TSRA to SW FL terminals aft 16Z Sat. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Scattered showers and storms will increase in coverage mostly over the eastern side of the peninsula through the remainder of the day as the sea breeze collision occurs in the region and a weakening mid level trough swings through. However, some development is still expected in interior areas of the CWA before westerly flow attempts to keep most activity pinned to areas just to the east of the forecast area by the evening hours and while an isolated strong storm or two can`t be ruled out, overall severe chances remain lower than yesterday given slightly warmer mid level temperatures. Otherwise, any activity from today will generally weaken by around 9- 10 PM as diurnal heating fades. A frontal boundary will drop into northern Florida overnight and stall around north central portions of the state throughout the upcoming weekend. This will help reinforce the westerly flow across the area so any precipitation activity that occurs would generally be more favored for interior areas but large scale subsidence will also be increasing as mid level ridging across the lower Mississippi Valley gradually builds into the area. This combination of increasing subsidence, westerly flow, and drier air building in aloft will support lower precipitation coverage overall throughout the weekend but there will still be some rain potential mostly for southern portions of the forecast area where moisture should remain deep enough to produce showers and storms with sea breeze interaction. In addition, as upper heights aloft increase throughout the weekend with ridging building in, temperatures will be on the rise with most areas expected to reach the mid/upper 90s and heat index values approaching or exceeding criteria. While conditions look close to criteria for Saturday, decided to hold off on any advisory for the afternoon forecast issuance after collaboration with neighboring WFOs but with even warmer heat indices expected by Sunday, there certainly remains potential for advisory issuance in subsequent forecast issuances. Mid level ridging across the area begins to break down by early next week as an upper level trough swings across the Eastern Seaboard. This feature will push a cold front across the Southeast on Monday but once again this frontal boundary will stall north of the area, helping to keep westerly in flow in place to start off the new week. Meanwhile, attention turns to the south of the area as models show an upper trough developing across the Gulf of Mexico while a plume of deep tropical moisture extends northward from the western Caribbean. While details remain uncertain regarding the positioning of where this plume will ultimately set up, there is increasing confidence of a very moist airmass moving into the area and setting the stage for multi-day heavy rain event by mid to late week as significant moisture advection increases into the region. While precipitation will be welcome news to alleviate the ongoing drought conditions in west central and southwest Florida, this pattern may also introduce some hydro concerns depending on where some of the heaviest rainfall occurs. Given the expectation in a much wetter pattern by mid to late week, temperatures will also be trending cooler throughout the week as cloud cover increases as the tropical airmass becomes established across the region. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 A cold front settles across north central Florida over the upcoming weekend and this will keep westerly flow in place across the Gulf waters with winds generally around 5-10 kts. Rain chances will be lower overall throughout the weekend as drier air builds into the area but occasional showers and thunderstorms will still be possible. Another cold front approaches northern Florida by early next week with westerly winds slightly increasing, though wind speeds will generally remain below 15 kts. Tropical moisture then surges into the area by mid to late week with increasing rain chances and building seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Lower rain chances arrive for the weekend as a frontal boundary stalls north of the area, which will keep westerly winds in place but wind speeds will remain below red flag criteria. However, a few showers and thunderstorms could occur mostly in interior areas. A wetter pattern then could develop by mid to late week next week as tropical moisture moves into the area with beneficial rainfall possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 80 94 80 94 / 10 20 10 30 FMY 78 94 79 94 / 20 40 30 50 GIF 76 99 77 99 / 10 30 10 30 SRQ 79 94 78 94 / 10 20 10 30 BKV 73 96 72 96 / 10 20 0 20 SPG 82 93 82 94 / 10 20 10 30 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ RDavis/Hurt