922
FXUS62 KTBW 110526
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
126 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
The complex and wet pattern is beginning to set up this evening as
the features are coming in phase. The upper longwave trough down
the Eastern Seaboard continues to dig through the Deep South and
into the N Gulf pushing a surface frontal boundary and active
weather into N FL shunting the Bermuda high well S into the
S Bahamas. These features are interacting with a weak tropical
wave depicted on surface plots from the Yucatan Peninsula bending
back into the SE Gulf of Mexico. Deep convection formed in
several areas on the eastern side of the wave earlier today and
continue this evening. An early look at the TBW 00Z sounding and
FL ACARS data are showing the dry air aloft is quickly eroding in
C and SW FL as the southerly flow low level flow deepens bring the
tropical airmass from the NW Carib by tomorrow morning. Models
trends have increased PoPs earlier tonight but not QPF values and
have updated the grids and forecasts. The ongoing forecast looks
on track for Tuesday and beyond and will continue to closely
monitor the latest data and update products as needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Numerous to widespread showers currently across the terminals.
Lightning activity has greatly decreased over the last couple of
hours but showers have become more widespread during this
timeframe. Due to this, started most terminals with either SHRA or
VCSH. Conditions have been MVFR to even IFR in these heavier
showers with VFR outside of these conditions. Will continue to
monitor trends and add VCTS or TS if needed in amendments.

Latest guidance suggests more showers/storms developing around the
12-15z timeframe and added VCTS or TSRA after this timeframe.
Timing each of these rounds of showers/storms will be extremely
difficult but tried to accomplish this in the TAFs. Winds
generally be from the south throughout the TAF cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

SW flow in place today will shift to more southerly overnight,
with tropical moisture lifting over the area and remaining
through the rest of the week along a stalled boundary in place
across south Florida. This will allow for periods of rain with an
isolated occasional thunderstorm for Tuesday through the rest of
the period across the waters, with the greatest coverage across
the southern waters. No headlines are expected, but winds and seas
will be locally higher near the storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Deep moisture moving into the area will bring periods of rain
across the area for Tuesday through the end of the week, with
higher rain chances continuing into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  85  78  86  78 / 100  80  80  70
FMY  84  77  86  77 / 100  90  90  90
GIF  85  75  86  75 / 100  70  80  60
SRQ  85  78  86  77 / 100  80  90  90
BKV  88  73  88  74 /  90  60  80  60
SPG  85  80  86  79 / 100  80  80  80

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Anderson
DECISION SUPPORT...Shiveley
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Shiveley