754
FXUS62 KTBW 181202
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
802 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Very warm and humid conditions today with deep S-SW flow bringing
high dew point airmass over the FL Peninsula as the Gulf seabreeze
develops early and moves well inland by the afternoon with very
low rain chances in coastal zones from the Tampa Bay area through
SW FL. Another MCS is moving through the N Gulf and FL Panhandle
this morning that is expected to weaken but move into N FL
Peninsula later this afternoon with some strong to severe storms
possible mainly over the Nature Coast. Will monitor radar trends
through the day to access convective timing and strength potential.

Persistent long period swells continue to be generated by strong
S-SE winds through the Yucatan Channel that are moving thru the
Gulf then ashore local area beaches producing 2-3 ft breaking
waves and potentially dangerous rip currents especially at SW
facing beaches today and a rip current statement has been issued
for these conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
VFR conditions expected to continue today and tonight with gusty
SW winds by 14Z through the afternoon pushing isolated seabreeze
SHRA/TSRA well inland.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

For the weekend a cold front will start to push through the
southeast. Ahead of it a shortwave is expected to once again push
through the Panhandle and head west. The big difference from
yesterday morning storms is the line looks to be a little more
south but still should stay north of I-4. Timing looks to also be
a little later focusing more on the early afternoon hours with
severe weather possible. Areas south of I-4 will avoid the rain
but will not be able to escape the heat with highs in the
interior in the mid to upper 90`s with head index in the low to
mid 100`s.

The actually front looks to start pushing through the area Sunday
morning with more widespread showers possible throughout much of the
area during the morning and afternoon hours. We will once again be
looking at an isolate severe weather threat as the front pushes
through.

Troughing will remain over the area for Monday and Tuesday mainly
resulting in seabreeze storms in the interior during the late
afternoon and evening hours.

Ridging looks to return for Wednesday through Friday resulting in
more subsidence and keeping us dry but hot across the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 342 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Winds will remain out of the south and southwest
throughout the weekend ahead of a cold front that will push through
late on Sunday. A few showers will be possible in our northern
waters this afternoon with more widespread shower activity expected
Sunday morning and afternoon. Winds will shift more northerly for
the start of next week with shower activity staying in the interior

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 342 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Cold front will be heading our way this weekend mainly
bringing showers to the area on Sunday. Drier air will filter in
behind the front giving some possible critical RHs on Monday in the
interior south of I-4.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  77  86  75 /  30  40  70  20
FMY  93  78  90  76 /  10  30  50  30
GIF  94  75  88  72 /  30  40  70  20
SRQ  90  77  86  74 /  10  40  60  30
BKV  93  73  86  68 /  40  50  70  10
SPG  89  78  84  77 /  20  40  70  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal
     Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

RJD