669
FXUS62 KTBW 061857
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
257 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Westerly low level flow continues to become increasingly established
as a Bermuda high pressure shifts further out into the Atlantic
with the approach of a cool front that will drop into the
Southeast US tonight. This westerly flow will allow the west coast
sea breeze to continue to spread inland through the remainder of
the day and favor a sea breeze collision over the eastern half of
the peninsula so precipitation coverage in the forecast area will
be greatest in interior areas, particularly much of Polk county
southward into southern interior areas. SPC has a Marginal risk in
place across much of this region and a Slight risk across most of
Highlands and the eastern half of Polk county as some isolated
instances of 1" hail and wind gusts of around 60 mph will be
possible with the strongest cores that develop given MLCAPE values
around 3000 J/kg, 500mb temps as low as -10C, and steep low level
lapse rates.

Any precipitation activity that develops today will taper off by
around 9-10 PM as diurnal heating fades, but scattered convection
will once again develop on Friday as a mid level trough swings
across the region. Despite the presence of this feature, 500mb temps
will be slightly warmer than today with values around -7C/-8C, so
severe chances appear to be lower at this time but there will still
be more than enough instability for perhaps a few stronger storms
to develop. Regardless, westerly low level flow will be
reinforced across the region as the aforementioned cool front
continues its slow approach to northern Florida and this will once
again favor the greatest precipitation coverage to be across
interior areas and across the eastern side of the peninsula.

The weekend should feature lower rain chances as the cool front
stalls around north central Florida and generally washes out into
early next week. With our area ahead of the frontal boundary, this
will help maintain the westerly flow throughout the weekend as mid
level ridging across the lower MS valley gradually builds in from
the west. This feature will bring in some drier air aloft and keep
rain chances lower throughout the weekend, though there will still
be some potential for showers and storms mainly for the southern
half of the forecast area where the deepest moisture will be in
place. The ridging will become increasingly flattened by early next
week as models show trough swinging across the Eastern Seaboard.
Meanwhile, tropical moisture appears to surge northward from the
Caribbean, which may possibly associated with a Central American
Gyre (CAG). While forecast details remain highly uncertain at this
time on the evolution of this potential feature, there remains
deterministic and ensemble support in this increase in tropical
moisture with the latest EPS showing probabilities of 70-80% for
PWAT values greater than 2 inches spreading across the area by mid
to late week. As a result, high rain chances with slightly cooler
high temperatures will be the general theme of the forecast for much
of next week for now given the increase in cloud cover but latest
trends on how this potential CAG evolves will need to be monitored
to better iron out expected conditions and impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop mostly across
the interior later today into this evening, though some flights
restrictions will be possible at KLAL and SWFL terminals depending
on how close in proximity this activity develops. This activity
should generally taper off around 9 PM with VFR conditions then
returning for the overnight hours. However, some additional
showers and storms will be possible late morning/early afternoon
before activity mostly shifts towards interior areas once again
later in the day. Winds on Friday will be out of the west ahead of
a cool front approaching from the north with winds around 7-10
kts throughout the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

High pressure in the Atlantic shifts further offshore with winds
generally remaining westerly over the next several days as a cool
fronts approaches Florida from the north. In addition, occasional
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the
Gulf waters at times with locally hazardous seas possible in the
vicinity of this activity. The front will stall across the
northern half of the marine zones over the weekend before washing
out into early next week with no marine headlines expected at this
time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Minimum RH values should generally remain above critical levels
through the end of the week, though some locations may briefly
drop into the upper 30s at times. Scattered showers and storms
will mostly be favored for inland areas over the next couple of
days as westerly winds will remain in place. The weekend will
feature somewhat lower rain chances as some drier air spreads in
but enough moisture should remain for some showers and storms for
the southern half of the forecast area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  92  80  94 /  30  50  20  20
FMY  76  94  78  94 /  50  70  50  50
GIF  75  96  76  98 /  30  60  20  40
SRQ  77  92  79  94 /  30  40  20  30
BKV  72  94  72  96 /  20  50  10  20
SPG  80  91  82  92 /  30  40  20  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Anderson
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Anderson