654
FXUS62 KTBW 171128
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
728 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Pockets of MVFR cigs will continue to affect some terminals
through around 14Z or so, with VFR then expected through the rest
of the day. Still some uncertainty as far as rain or storm chances
for the Tampa Bay region, but currently still think that most
activity should stay to the north, though this will have to be
monitored over the next several hours. Also some early hints at
another morning of some lower cigs and will continue to evaluate
that as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

A closed upper low and surface low spins north of Bermuda with a
cold front extending southward through the western Atlantic, then
turning westward over Florida and extending further westward along
the northern gulf coast to Louisiana. A MCS on the western periphery
of this front is producing some severe weather from Louisiana to the
Florida panhandle. This system will traverse eastward over the next
12-24 hours, slightly weakening as it moves near northern Florida on
Friday. A chance of showers and a stray storm will be possible over
the Nature Coast through the afternoon hours as this system moves
over northern Florida and the frontal boundary lifts northward.
There`s a Marginal Risk for severe storms over parts of the Nature
Coast for today. Some seabreeze showers and storms will also be
possible over the interior and east coast.

On Saturday, the front lifts farther northward over the southeast
U.S. Abundant moisture on the south side of this front will lead to
scattered showers and storms on Saturday with the highest chances
over the Nature Coast. By Sunday morning, a weak low develops near
the Carolinas with a cold front extending southwestward across
Florida. This will bring another round of showers and storms during
the day on Sunday. The front will linger across southern Florida
through Tuesday with daily showers and storms possible over the
southern counties and interior. High pressure builds into the area
by late Tuesday into Wednesday with drier air and lower rain chances
by mid week and continuing through the end of next week. Near
average to slightly above average temperatures are expected through
the period. Heat indices will reach 100-104 degrees over the next
couple of days.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Southerly winds less than 15 knots and 2-3 foot seas persist through
Saturday. A chance of showers and a stray storm will be possible
over the northeast gulf on Friday and Saturday as a frontal boundary
lifts over the area. Winds become more southwesterly on Sunday ahead
of the next cold front moving through during the day on Sunday
bringing increasing rain and storm chances to the eastern gulf
waters. Lingering rain chances will stick around through Tuesday
primarily over the southeastern gulf waters. Winds and seas remain
below headline criteria through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

No fire weather concerns expected as abundant moisture remains over
the area with daily showers and storms possible over the next few
days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  79  91  78 /  10   0  30  50
FMY  92  78  95  78 /  10   0  10  30
GIF  94  73  97  74 /  20  10  40  40
SRQ  91  78  93  77 /  10   0  20  40
BKV  92  72  93  72 /  20   0  40  50
SPG  89  81  90  80 /  10   0  30  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Aviation...05/Carlisle
Previous...Wynn