Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
793 FXUS62 KTBW 261215 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 815 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 815 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 High pressure well out in the Atlantic Ocean continues to ridge west across the Florida peninsula with the axis to the south of the forecast area. Therefore, the general west to northwest flow will continue and with limited moisture, precipitable water around 1.1 inches on morning TBW sounding, the fair, dry, and rather hot weather will persist. Current forecast looks good with no changes needed. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 815 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 VFR conditions will prevail with light winds early this morning becoming westerly and increasing to 10 to 13 knots this afternoon, then diminishing and becoming light and variable later this evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 422 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 High pressure will continue to ridge across the area at the surface and aloft through Monday with generally westerly flow in place and hot and dry conditions. Temperatures will warm into the lower 90s at the coast to the mid to upper 90s inland. A stray shower or two will be possible inland in the late afternoon/early evening each day and some patchy fog will be possible around sunrise in the mornings. Low afternoon humidities will keep heat index values close to actual temperatures. A weak cold front then settles in across the area Tuesday and washes out, with lingering moisture across the area and upper energy streaming across the area allowing for some scattered afternoon showers and storms each day with heating. Temperatures remain hot with lower to mid 90s and some pockets of upper 90s each day, and lows in the upper 60s to upper 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 422 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 High pressure ridging to the south of the area will keep westerly winds in place across the waters through Monday. A front will then settle across the area Tuesday, with moisture and energy lingering across the area through the end of the period, bringing some scattered showers and storms across the waters. Winds remain W/NW through Wednesday, then shift to the N/NE for Thursday. No headlines expected through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 422 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Hot and dry conditions will continue through Monday with some critical humidities possible inland, but winds will be below 15 mph so no headlines anticipated. Scattered showers and storms possible then Tuesday as a front washes out across the area and then rain chances continue inland each afternoon through the rest of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 93 77 92 78 / 0 0 0 10 FMY 95 75 94 76 / 0 0 10 10 GIF 97 73 97 74 / 0 0 10 10 SRQ 92 73 92 77 / 0 0 0 10 BKV 95 68 94 71 / 0 0 0 10 SPG 92 79 90 79 / 0 0 0 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 8 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Close DECISION SUPPORT...Hubbard UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn