030
FXUS62 KTBW 151138
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
738 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 455 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Local weather conditions likely to remain relatively unchanged
through the week due to a blocking pattern set up over the
eastern U.S. Westerly flow aloft is in place over the peninsula
this morning between west-east oriented troughing over the SE
U.S. south of high pressure centered over SE Canada/Great Lakes,
and a ridge axis south of the state over the S Gulf/N Caribbean.
At the surface, a weak frontal boundary extends across the
peninsula and into the Gulf from an area of low pressure off the
GA/Carolinas coast, leading to N-NE flow north of the boundary and
W-NW flow to its south. Despite lower PW values this morning
generally between 1.3-1.8 inches over most of the area, a shallow
moist layer over the lowest 1-2 km has allowed low clouds and
patchy fog to fester again this morning, particularly for northern
and central areas. Improving conditions expected as the morning
progresses as daytime heating erodes the low cloud layer. Deeper
moisture still in place across SWFL will favor the greatest chance
of showers/embedded storms developing later this morning to the
south of the boundary. Given the W-NW flow south of the boundary,
expect convection to progress eastward away from the coast late
morning through mid-afternoon with drier conditions through the
remainder of the day. Elsewhere across the CWA, the only other
notable PoPs look to be across areas north of I-4 from mid-late
afternoon into the evening as Atlantic moisture advects into the
area via N-NE flow north of the boundary.

On Monday and Tuesday, the surface low off the SE U.S. coast is
expected to move inland and across the Carolinas with the
boundary continuing to linger across the peninsula, while the
troughing aloft over the SE U.S. expands northward across the E
U.S., dislodging the SE Canada/Great Lakes high. Moisture only
gradually recovers over the peninsula, keeping PoPs mostly in the
30-50 percent range while continuing to favor highest PoPs
transitioning inland through the afternoon hours. After a brief
uptick in moisture around mid week, drier air again looks to work
into the region during the latter half of the week as a result of
N-NW flow around the area of low pressure aloft over the E U.S.,
leading to a reduction in PoPs late week into the weekend.

Temperatures through the period look to remain fairly close to
normal, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Triple-digit
heat indices will still be likely during the afternoons, however
they are expected to remain below advisory level, in part due to
the periods of drier air expected over the upcoming week, which is
to be expected as we approach the autumnal equinox a week from
today.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 736 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Areas of low clouds and patchy fog are in place this morning with
IFR/LIFR conditions to start the period but the fog should burn
off around 13Z-14Z. After the fog burns off and low clouds lift,
VFR conditions will generally prevail through the remainder of the
day area-wide, though brief restrictions will be possible at
times at KPGD/KFMY/KRSW due to the occasional sct TSRA.
Otherwise, light ENE winds this morning will shift to the WNW
later this morning and into the afternoon as the sea breeze
develops with wind speeds around 5-10 kts throughout the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 455 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Drier air has settled over much of the waters this morning,
however lingering moisture across the southernmost waters will
keep isolated to scattered showers and storms off the southwest
Florida coast. Winds will generally be from the northeast in the
morning hours before shifting onshore as the sea breeze develops
during the afternoon over the next couple of days. Winds will be
5-10 knots and seas less than 2 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 455 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

A weak frontal boundary continues to sink slowly southward across
the area with associated drier air resulting in lower rain chances,
however a few showers and storms will remain possible in interior
areas and southwest Florida. Minimum relative humidity values are
expected to remain well above critical levels and given wet soil
conditions from recent rainfall, fire danger is expected to remain
low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  77  90  76 /  10  10  30  10
FMY  92  78  91  77 /  30  10  30  20
GIF  93  76  92  75 /  10   0  40  10
SRQ  90  77  90  76 /  10   0  20  10
BKV  91  73  90  72 /  20  10  40  10
SPG  90  80  90  80 /  10  10  20  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hurt
AVIATION...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Close
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close