952
FXUS62 KTBW 281235
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
835 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 835 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Weakening frontal boundary continues to drift south into north
Florida with some showers and a few thunderstorms moving across
the northern waters and Nature Coast early this morning. A few
more showers have developed off southwest Florida where moisture
is also slightly higher. Morning TBW sounding has come in with
precipitable water around 1.5 inches so we have have enough
moisture for continued isolated to scattered convection, but the
westerly flow will favor the interior and eastern half of the
Florida peninsula as the day progresses. Current forecast depicts
this pattern and looks on good with no adjustments needed at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 835 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Some areas of MVFR ceilings will be possible this morning,
otherwise VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF
period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible near
the TAF sites, but the only TAF site that has a decent chance will
be at KLAL early this afternoon. Westerly winds will increase to
10 to 13 knots later this morning and continue through the
afternoon, then shift to northwest and become light during this
evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

In the upper levels, a couple of shortwaves are rotating around a
longwave trough over the Great Lakes and Eastern Canada today. At
the surface, this system is pulling a cold front into northern
Florida and the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where it will stall out
as the upper level trough pulls away. Moisture pooling to the south
of this boundary will favor isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms today, then drier air will fill into the area tonight.
As the front lingers over the Florida Peninsula during the middle of
the week, scattered showers and storms will continue to be possible
mainly over southwest Florida Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.
Otherwise, temperatures will remain warm through Friday, with highs
in the mid to upper 90s over the interior and low to mid 90s along
the coast.

Late in the week, another shortwave will swing into the eastern
seaboard, deepening the longwave trough and pushing the frontal
boundary south into Florida as a backdoor cold front. This will
increase atmospheric moisture and bring about higher rain chances
Friday through Monday, while also dropping temperatures a few
degrees back down to near normal.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

A weak front will push into the northern Gulf of Mexico today and
stall out north of the coastal waters, leading to increasing chances
of showers and thunderstorms. Drier conditions will fill in
Wednesday and Thursday, before the frontal boundary finally pushes
south through the waters Friday through the weekend bringing
another increase in rain chances. Outside of thunderstorms, winds
and seas are forecast to remain below headline criteria through
the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Relative humidity is not forecast to not drop to critically low
levels this afternoon. Drier air will fill on Wednesday, with
relative humidity dropping below 35 percent across widespread
areas, but 20 foot wind speeds will not be high enough to trigger
Red Flag Warnings. High dispersion indices are forecast this
afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  78  95  76 /  30   0  10   0
FMY  94  76  96  75 /  20  10  30  10
GIF  95  74  97  72 /  40  10  10   0
SRQ  91  77  94  75 /  30   0  10   0
BKV  92  70  96  66 /  40   0  10   0
SPG  90  81  94  79 /  30   0  10   0

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 8

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Close
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Fleming
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn