Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
180
FXXX10 KWNP 161231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Sep 16 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 16-Sep 18 2024 is 6.67 (NOAA Scale
G3).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 16-Sep 18 2024
Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep 18
00-03UT 3.67 5.67 (G2) 2.67
03-06UT 4.00 5.00 (G1) 2.33
06-09UT 4.00 4.67 (G1) 2.33
09-12UT 4.33 4.00 2.33
12-15UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 2.33
15-18UT 4.67 (G1) 2.33 2.00
18-21UT 5.67 (G2) 2.33 2.33
21-00UT 6.67 (G3) 3.00 2.67
Rationale: G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) geomagnetic storming is likely on 16 Sep
and G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms is likely on 17 Sep due to
potential combined CH HSS and CME influences from separate events.
Background conditions are expected on 18 Sep.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 16-Sep 18 2024
Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep 18
S1 or greater 20% 15% 10%
Rationale: A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation event will
persist through 18 Sep as multiple active regions exist on the disk.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 16-Sep 18 2024
Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep 18
R1-R2 55% 45% 40%
R3 or greater 15% 10% 10%
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely on 16 Sep,
decreasing to a chance on 17-18 Sep. R3 (Strong) radio blackouts event
probabilities remain at a slight chance through the period as multiple
regions exist on the disk.