Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
442
FXXX10 KWNP 171231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jun 17 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 17-Jun 19 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 17-Jun 19 2024
Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun 19
00-03UT 2.00 2.67 2.67
03-06UT 3.00 4.00 2.67
06-09UT 2.00 4.00 2.00
09-12UT 2.00 3.00 2.00
12-15UT 2.00 1.67 1.00
15-18UT 2.33 2.00 2.00
18-21UT 2.33 2.33 2.00
21-00UT 3.00 3.33 2.33
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 17-Jun 19 2024
Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun 19
S1 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: There is a chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms over
17-19 Jun due to the flare potential of Regions 3712 and 3716.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jun 17 2024 0804 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 17-Jun 19 2024
Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun 19
R1-R2 55% 55% 55%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely on 17-19
Jun, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, due to the
flare potential of Regions 3712 and 3716.