953
FXUS65 KTFX 101707
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1107 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...Aviation Section Updated...

.SYNOPSIS...

Scattered rain showers across North Central and Southwest Montana
diminish this morning, with a few showers along the Hi-Line this
evening as a quick weather system from Canada moves through the
MT/Canadian Border this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, dry
conditions are in store through the work week. Windy conditions on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Potential for a few shower activity
returns Friday afternoon for Southwest Montana, but otherwise dry
conditions continue through early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...

Almost all of the rain showers from this morning have moved east
out of North-central and Central Montana. The rest of the showers
will move out of the area within the next hour. This afternoon
isolated light showers will move south from Canada to the Hi-
Line. The rest of North-central, Central, and Southwestern
Montana will remain dry for the rest of today aside from a shower
a two that could sneak south of the Hi-Line.

For this morning`s update, dewpoint values this morning were
increased to better reflect current observations and trends. Winds
speeds and wind gusts were increased due to the latest model runs
and current observations indicating higher speeds and gusts than
were forecasted. Pops and QPF for this afternoon were tweaked
primarily along the Hi-Line to better reflect the latest Hi-res
model guidance. The rest of the forecast is on track. -IG

&&

.AVIATION...

10/18Z TAF Period

Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain
possible through trough the early evening hours tonight along and
north of the US Hwy 2 corridor (i.e. KHVR to KCTB terminals);
however, the probability for any one shower impacting the KHVR or
KCTB terminals through 03z Tuesday is below a 30% chance. Scattered
to broken VFR/low-VFR CIGS are expected through the afternoon hours
today across all terminals as the disturbance responsible for the
early morning precipitation slides east, with breezy and gusty west
to northwest winds at the terminals in Central and North Central
Montana (i.e. KHLN, KGTF, KLWT, KCTB, and KHVR). Mountains will be
obscured at times through 03-09z Tuesday. - Moldan

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 522 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024/

Today through Thursday...Light scattered rain showers and
thunderstorms continue to diminish this morning across the region.
Another upper level shortwave moves through the MT/Canadian border
this afternoon and evening bringing a few light rain showers to the
Hi-Line region tonight. Otherwise, conditions begin to dry out
today. Winds and dry conditions are the primary impact concerns
the next few days as upper level troughing moves out of our
region today and upper level ridging builds back in for Tuesday.
Breezy conditions can be seen this afternoon in the wake of the
upper level trough, then diminish through the evening hours before
ramping back up for Tuesday which has stronger wind gusts in
store. Ensemble model guidance is still hinting at a few standard
deviations above climatology for wind gusts for this time of year,
where a few locations across the Rocky Mountain Front and
adjacent Hi-Plains region could see wind gusts 45 to 55 mph. Winds
on Wednesday will also be gusty between 35 and 45 mph across
North Central and Southwest Montana with latest National Blend of
Models 4.2 probabilistic data suggesting wind gusts above 45 mph
is high (greater than 75 percent) for along the Rocky Mountain
Front and high for 30 to 35 mph everywhere else. With recent
moisture from scattered rain showers across the region, fire
weather concerns are low during this timeframe even with low
relative humidity values occurring on Wednesday and the windy
conditions. Gusty winds diminish overnight Wednesday with dry
conditions continuing for Thursday and Friday morning.

Friday through early next week... Ensemble models are starting to
agree more on upper level ridging beginning to break down Friday and
Saturday with upper level troughing moving into our region Sunday
into early next week. While there is still great uncertainty on
what this entails for weather conditions, winds and fire weather
will continue to be monitored during this time period as we dry
out from the previous week. The Climate Prediction Center still
has our area in below normal temperatures for this timeframe with
latest forecast models suggesting high temperatures in the 60s and
lows in the 40s. Webb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  49  83  54 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  75  48  80  50 /  20  10   0   0
HLN  82  52  87  55 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  78  47  83  50 /  50   0   0   0
WYS  70  40  74  42 /  60  10   0   0
DLN  76  46  83  49 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  76  51  85  53 /  70  40   0   0
LWT  74  47  80  50 /  70  10   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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